Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-2, 1-1 ACC) is set to face Virginia (3-2, 1-2 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 9 at 3:00 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

- Rankings:

	Virginia	Louisville
Associated Press Top 25	NR	NR
USA TODAY Coaches Poll	NR	NR
SOS	57th	64th
SP+	47th	60th
FPI	42nd	59th

- Offensive Statistics:

	Virginia	Louisville
Total Offense	7th (526.6)	36th (441.8)
Scoring Offense	39th (34.2)	52nd (32.2)
Passing Yards	2nd (398.0)	35th (273.2)
Yards Per Completion	30th (13.54)	57th (12.77)
Rushing Yards	97th (128.6)	55th (168.6)
First Downs Gained	5th (134)	45th (110)
3rd Down Con. %	18th (49.3%)	74th (38.7%)
4th Down Con. %	107th (37.5%)	64th (54.5%)
Red Zone Con. %	107th (73.9%)	17th (94.4%)
Turnovers Lost	71st (7)	53rd (6)
Interceptions Thrown	64th (4)	22nd (2)
Fumbles Lost	62nd (3)	96th (4)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	90th (6.40)	27th (4.40)
Sacks Allowed	108th (3.00)	34th (1.60)
Avg. Time of Possession	37th (31:15)	10th (33:27)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Virginia	Louisville
Total Defense	97th (412.8)	107th (434.8)
Scoring Defense	86th (27.6)	91st (28.2)
Passing Yards Allowed	61st (218.0)	110th (261.2)
Rushing Yards Allowed	110th (194.8)	97th (173.6)
3rd Down Defensive %	74th (38.6%)	43rd (34.3%)
4th Down Defensive %	101st (66.7%)	77th (55.6%)
First Downs Allowed	95th (108)	109th (116)
Red Zone Defensive %	23rd (72.2%)	119th (94.7%)
Turnovers Gained	106th (4)	75th (6)
Interceptions Caught	97th (2)	33rd (5)
Fumbles Recovered	71st (2)	102nd (1)
Sacks Per Game	76th (2.00)	40th (2.60)
TFL Per Game	95th (5.0)	61st (6.0)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Virginia	Louisville
Net Punting	68th (39.35)	50th (40.68)
Avg. Kickoff Return	112th (16.00)	47th (22.33)
Avg. Kickoff Ret. Defense	7th (13.33)	86th (22.18)
Avg. Punt Return	80th (6.33)	24th (13.60)
Avg. Punt Ret. Defense	118th (14.83)	45th (4.67)
Field Goal Attempts	6-8	5-6
PAT	19-19	20-21

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 48.8 percent chance to win against the Cavaliers. Louisville has an FPI of 2.8 (59th overall), whereas Virginia has a rating of 5.7 (42nd overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 49.53 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.4 (60th overall), whereas Virginia has a rating of 8.1 (47th overall). Following the loss to Wake Forest, Louisville is favored in two of their seven remaining games on the schedule (Syracuse, Duke).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

• Preseason: 6.97
• Post-Week 1: 4.63
• Post-Week 2: 5.71
• Post-Week 3: 6.49
• Post-Week 4: 6.14
• Post-Week 5: 6.19

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 41, Virginia 38.

(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Geoff Burke - USA TODAY Sports)

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