Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. NC State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wolfpack for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-3, 2-2 ACC) is set to face NC State (5-2, 2-1 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 30 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, N.C. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wolfpack:

- Rankings:

	NC State	Louisville
Associated Press Top 25	RV	NR
USA Today Coaches Poll	25th	NR
SOS	76th	24th
SP+	28th	35th
FPI	18th	46th

- Offensive Statistics:

	NC State	Louisville
Total Offense	49th (424.4)	29th (450.0)
Scoring Offense	40th (32.0)	43rd (31.7)
Passing Yards	35th (267.4)	52nd (249.0)
Yards Per Completion	105th (11.08)	41st (13.11)
Rushing Yards	76th (157.0)	31st (201.0)
First Downs Gained	54th (156)	69th (152)
3rd Down Con. %	50th (42.5%)	93rd (36.7%)
4th Down Con. %	70th (50.0%)	43rd (61.5%)
Red Zone Con. %	36th (89.7%)	17th (92.6%)
Turnovers Lost	12th (6)	80th (11)
Interceptions Thrown	13th (3)	29th (4)
Fumbles Lost	25th (3)	117th (7)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	31st (3.86)	24th (3.57)
Sacks Allowed	36th (1.57)	14th (1.14)
Avg. Time of Possession	23rd (31:45)	20th (31:49)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	NC State	Louisville
Total Defense	18th (312.6)	102nd (432.1)
Scoring Defense	10th (16.7)	76th (27.0)
Passing Yards Allowed	56th (219.4)	117th (276.3)
Rushing Yards Allowed	11th (93.1)	65th (146.9)
3rd Down Defensive %	3rd (26.7%)	37th (35.0%)
4th Down Defensive %	31st (40.0%)	98th (64.3%)
First Downs Allowed	9th (110)	91 (159)
Red Zone Defensive %	27th (76.5%)	114th (92.6%)
Turnovers Gained	48th (11)	48th (11)
Interceptions Caught	21st (8)	14th (9)
Fumbles Recovered	81st (3)	104th (2)
Sacks Per Game	78th (2.00)	16th (3.00)
TFL Per Game	40th (5.7)	24th (6.3)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	NC State	Louisville
Net Punting	43rd (41.26)	51st (40.69)
Avg. Kickoff Return	84th (19.43)	48th (21.94)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	126th (28.14)	50th (19.59)
Avg. Punt Return	50th (9.50)	15th (14.25)
Avg. Punt Ret. Defense	54th (6.15)	51st (5.88)
Field Goals Attempts	9-13	9-13
PAT	27-27	27-18

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 22.7 percent chance to win against the Wolfpack. Louisville has an FPI of 4.6 (46th overall), whereas NC State has a rating of 11.7 (18th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 39.34 percent chance to take down the Wolfpack. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 9.8 (35th overall), whereas NC State has a rating of 11.9 (28th overall). Following the win over Boston College, Louisville is favored in three of their six remaining games on the schedule (Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

• Preseason: 6.97
• Post-Week 1: 4.63
• Post-Week 2: 5.71
• Post-Week 3: 6.49
• Post-Week 4: 6.14
• Post-Week 5: 6.19
• Post-Week 6: 5.47
• Post-Week 7: 5.74
• Post-Week 8: 6.56

- Personal Prediction: NC State 38, Louisville 35.

(Photo of Hassan Hall: Rob Kinnan - USA TODAY Sports)

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