Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (7-4, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (6-5, 3-5 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 26 at 3:00 p.m. EST at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:

- Rankings:

	Kentucky	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY/CFP	NR/NR/NR	RV/RV/25th
SOS	16th	37th
SP+	36th	31st
FPI	43rd	20th
Sagarin	37th	24th

- Offensive Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Offense	107th (335.5)	48th (413.8)
Scoring Offense	107th (21.7)	67th (28.5)
Passing Yards	82nd (218.6)	86th (217.7)
Yards Per Completion	47th (12.59)	43rd (12.74)
Rushing Yards	107th (116.8)	30th (196.1)
First Downs Gained	99th (202)	76th (221)
3rd Down Con. %	85th (37.6%)	87th (37.1%)
4th Down Con. %	23rd (61.9%)	121st (34.6%)
Red Zone Con. %	116th (76.2%)	52nd (86.0%)
Turnovers Lost	72nd (17)	72nd (17)
Interceptions Thrown	94th (11)	56th (8)
Fumbles Lost	38th (6)	94th (9)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	109th (6.82)	59th (2.00)
Sacks Allowed	125th (3.64)	69th (5.64)
Avg. Time of Possession	11th (33:04)	61st (30:06)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Defense	19th (321.2)	37th (347.2)
Scoring Defense	19th (19.6)	19th (19.6)
Passing Yards Allowed	12th (176.0)	41st (208.2)
Rushing Yards Allowed	63rd (145.2)	54th (139.0)
First Downs Allowed	11th (168)	51st (211)
3rd Down Defensive %	45th (35.8%)	42nd (35.1%)
4th Down Defensive %	20th (40.0%)	1st (15.8%)
Red Zone Defensive %	66th (83.3%)	7th (70.3%)
Turnovers Gained	84th (14)	2nd (28)
Interceptions Caught	72nd (8)	6th (15)
Fumbles Recovered	75th (6)	3rd (13)
Sacks Per Game	119th (1.36)	1st (3.73)
TFL Per Game	126th (4.1)	12th (7.4)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Net Punting	89th (37.32)	30th (40.28)
Avg. Kickoff Return	67th (19.92)	7th (25.21)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	113th (23.86)	34th (17.95)
Avg. Punt Return	111th (4.71)	117th (4.21)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	110th (11.14)	45th (5.90)
Field Goal Attempts	12-20	19-21
PAT	23-25	34-35

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 56.1 percent chance to win against the Wildcats. Louisville has an FPI rating of 10.6 (20th overall), whereas Kentucky has an FPI rating of 6.1 (43rd overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 48.12 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 11.3 (31st overall), whereas Kentucky has an SP+ rating of 9.6 (36th overall).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

• Preseason: 6.57
• Post-Week 1: 4.74
• Post-Week 2: 5.70
• Post-Week 3: 5.08
• Post-Week 4: 5.71
• Post-Week 5: 4.65
• Post-Week 6: 5.03
• Post-Week 7: 5.17
• Post-Week 8: 5.77
• Post-Week 9: 6.64
• Post-Week 10: 7.28
• Post-Week 11: 7.00
• Post-Week 12: 7.48

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 21, Kentucky 17.

(Photo of Maurice Burkley: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)

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