Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Cincinnati

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Bearcats for their Fenway Bowl matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (7-5, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Cincinnati (9-3, 6-2 AAC) on Saturday, Dec. 17 at 11:00 p.m. EST for the Fenway Bowl at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Bearcats:

- Rankings:

	Cincinnati	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY/CFP	RV/RV/NR	NR/NR/NR
SOS	93rd	27th
SP+	27th	38th
FPI	34th	25th
Sagarin	41st	32nd

- Offensive Statistics:

	Cincinnati	Louisville
Total Offense	64th (392.8)	54th (405.1)
Scoring Offense	46th (31.1)	76th (27.2)
Passing Yards	44th (255.9)	92nd (211.7)
Yards Per Completion	43rd (12.74)	56th (12.39)
Rushing Yards	88th (136.8)	35th (193.4)
First Downs Gained	91st (231)	83rd (240)
3rd Down Con. %	78th (37.9%)	90th (36.8%)
4th Down Con %	20th (63.2%)	113th (37.9%)
Red Zone Con. %	18th (90.0%)	64th (84.4%)
Turnovers Lost	20th (13)	90th (20)
Interceptions Thrown	43rd (8)	74th (10)
Fumbles Lost	20th (5)	94th (10)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	28th (4.50)	68th (5.67)
Sacks Allowed	88th (2.58)	71st (2.17)
Avg. Time of Possession	104th (28:20)	65th (29:51)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Cincinnati	Louisville
Total Defense	23rd (328.5)	35th (347.1)
Scoring Defense	23rd (20.3)	19th (20.2)
Passing Yards Allowed	17th (186.4)	34th (206.5)
Rushing Yards Allowed	49th (142.1)	48th (140.6)
First Downs Allowed	59th (242)	41st (228)
3rd Down Defensive %	61st (37.7%)	36th (34.6%)
4th Down Defensive %	34th (43.5%)	1st (15.8%)
Red Zone Defensive %	24th (77.5%)	10th (73.8%)
Turnovers Gained	62nd (17)	3rd (28)
Interceptions Caught	71st (9)	10th (15)
Fumbles Recovered	44th (8)	5th (13)
Sacks Per Game	20th (2.83)	2nd (3.58)
TFL Per Game	15th (7.2)	12th (7.2)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Cincinnati	Louisville
Net Punting	2nd (44.69)	30th (40.44)
Avg. Kickoff Return	56th (20.67)	5th (25.21)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	14th (16.89)	13th (16.86)
Avg. Punt Return	21st (11.36)	101st (5.24)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	16th (3.50)	39th (5.52)
Field Goal Attempts	19-23	19-21
PAT	44-44	35-36

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 55.4 percent chance to win against the Bearcats. Louisville has an FPI rating of 9.8 (25th overall), whereas Cincinnati has an FPI rating of 7.3 (34th overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 40.93 percent chance to take down the Bearcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 9.2 (38th overall), whereas Cincinnati has an SP+ rating of 13.1 (27th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 14, Cincinnati 10.

(Photo of Trey Franklin, Chandler Jones: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)

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