Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Florida State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ACC) is set to face Florida State (2-0, 0-0 ACC) on Friday, Sept. 16 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:

- Rankings:

	Florida State	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY	RV/RV	NR/NR
SOS	110th	20th
SP+	35th	55th
FPI	36th	51st
Sagarin	39th	46th

- Offensive Statistics:

	Florida State	Louisville
Total Offense	17th (515.0)	85th (377.5)
Scoring Offense	55th (35.5)	122nd (13.5)
Passing Yards	67th (246.0)	99th (196.0)
Yards Per Completion	19th (14.47)	58th (12.65)
Rushing Yards	6th (269.0)	53rd (181.5)
First Downs Gained	24th (55)	110th (34)
3rd Down Con. %	9th (59.3%)	79th (36.0%)
4th Down Con. %	88th (33.3%)	107th (20.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	84th (81.8%)	123rd (60.0%)
Turnovers Lost	55th (3)	76th (4)
Interceptions Thrown	29th (1)	74th (2)
Fumbles Lost	69th (2)	70th (2)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	1st (1.50)	81st (6.00)
Sacks Allowed	12th (0.50)	103rd (3.00)
Avg. Time of Possession	14th (34:39)	66th (29:51)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Florida State	Louisville
Total Defense	19th (256.0)	88th (394.0)
Scoring Defense	33rd (15.0)	66th (22.5)
Passing Yards Allowed	16th (140.0)	40th (186.0)
Rushing Yards Allowed	53rd (116.0)	53rd (181.5)
First Downs Allowed	53rd (36)	72nd (41)
3rd Down Defensive %	35th (28.6%)	72nd (37.0%)
4th Down Defensive %	115th (100.0%)	1st (0.0%)
Red Zone Defensive %	40th (75.0%)	40th (75.0%)
Turnovers Gained	88th (2)	109th (1)
Interceptions Caught	N/A	73rd (1)
Fumbles Recovered	32nd (2)	N/A)
Sacks Per Game	33rd (2.50)	18th (3.00)
TFL Per Game	57th (6.0)	45th (6.5)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Florida State	Louisville
Net Punting	1st (48.67)	57th (40.29)
Avg. Kickoff Return	85th (17.75)	52nd (21.00)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	21st (14.17)	15th (12.00)
Avg. Punt Return	96th (2.33)	87th (4.00)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	8th (-1.00)	99th (9.60)
Field Goal Attempts	3-4	2-3
PAT	8-8	3-3

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 45.1 percent chance to win against the Seminoles. Louisville has an FPI rating of 4.5 (51st overall), whereas Florida State has an FPI rating of 8.3 (36th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 42.07 percent chance to take down the Seminoles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.9 (55th overall), whereas Florida State has an SP+ rating of 11.8 (35th overall).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

• Preseason: 6.57
• Post-Week 1: 4.74
• Post-Week 2: 5.70

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Florida State 27.

(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Melina Myers - USA TODAY Sports)

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