Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-3, 0-3 ACC) is set to face Virginia (2-3, 0-2 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 8 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

- Rankings:

Virginia

Louisville

AP/USA TODAY

NR/NR

NR/NR

SOS

26th

30th

SP+

78th

60th

FPI

78th

50th

Sagarin

87th

55th

- Offensive Statistics:

Virginia

Louisville

Total Offense

99th (364.4)

52nd (430.0)

Scoring Offense

118th (18.0)

90th (26.4)

Passing Yards

93rd (210.0)

87th (221.0)

Yards Per Completion

85th (11.41)

62nd (12.14)

Rushing Yards

69th (154.4)

24th (209.0)

First Downs Gained

73rd (103)

53rd (110)

3rd Down Con. %

87th (36.2%)

79th (36.8%)

4th Down Con. %

96th (37.5%)

104th (33.3%)

Red Zone Con. %

98th (76.5%)

79th (81.0%)

Turnovers Lost

116th (12)

108th (10)

Interceptions Thrown

89th (5)

69th (4)

Fumbles Lost

121st (7)

116th (6)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

70th (5.60)

70th (5.60)

Sacks Allowed

95th (2.60)

76th (2.20)

Avg. Time of Possession

103rd (28:13)

52nd (30:33)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

Virginia

Louisville

Total Defense

52nd (355.4)

66th (369.8)

Scoring Defense

56th (23.0)

60th (23.4)

Passing Yards Allowed

39th (199.4)

49th (210.4)

Rushing Yards Allowed

86th (156.0)

89th (159.4)

First Downs Allowed

85th (105)

45th (90)

3rd Down Defensive %

43rd (33.8%)

51st (34.8%)

4th Down Defensive %

47th (50.0%)

8th (16.7%)

Red Zone Defensive %

97th (88.2%)

17th (70.0%)

Turnovers Gained

28th (9)

28th (9)

Interceptions Caught

100th (2)

21st (6)

Fumbles Recovered

3rd (7)

60th (3)

Sacks Per Game

18th (3.00)

13th (3.20)

TFL Per Game

56th (6.0)

15th (7.4)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

Virginia

Louisville

Net Punting

119th (34.21)

21st (41.84)

Avg. Kickoff Return

19th (25.46)

78th (19.64)

Avg. Kickoff Return Def.

113th (24.56)

59th (19.43)

Avg. Punt Return

130th (-0.20)

121st (3.00)

Avg. Punt Return Def.

112th (13.22)

63rd (6.80)

Field Goal Attempts

5-9

7-8

PAT

9-11

15-16

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 63.3 percent chance to win against the Cavaliers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 4.7 (50th overall), whereas Virginia has an FPI rating of -2.6 (78th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2022-10-05 at 5.20.55 PM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 56.54 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.6 (60th overall), whereas Virginia has an SP+ rating of -0.7 (78th overall).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

  • Preseason: 6.57
  • Post-Week 1: 4.74
  • Post-Week 2: 5.70
  • Post-Week 3: 5.08
  • Post-Week 4: 5.71
  • Post-Week 5: 4.65

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 24, Virginia 21.

(Photo via Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)

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Published
Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic