Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-3, 0-3 ACC) is set to face Virginia (2-3, 0-2 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 8 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

- Rankings:

	Virginia	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY	NR/NR	NR/NR
SOS	26th	30th
SP+	78th	60th
FPI	78th	50th
Sagarin	87th	55th

- Offensive Statistics:

	Virginia	Louisville
Total Offense	99th (364.4)	52nd (430.0)
Scoring Offense	118th (18.0)	90th (26.4)
Passing Yards	93rd (210.0)	87th (221.0)
Yards Per Completion	85th (11.41)	62nd (12.14)
Rushing Yards	69th (154.4)	24th (209.0)
First Downs Gained	73rd (103)	53rd (110)
3rd Down Con. %	87th (36.2%)	79th (36.8%)
4th Down Con. %	96th (37.5%)	104th (33.3%)
Red Zone Con. %	98th (76.5%)	79th (81.0%)
Turnovers Lost	116th (12)	108th (10)
Interceptions Thrown	89th (5)	69th (4)
Fumbles Lost	121st (7)	116th (6)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	70th (5.60)	70th (5.60)
Sacks Allowed	95th (2.60)	76th (2.20)
Avg. Time of Possession	103rd (28:13)	52nd (30:33)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Virginia	Louisville
Total Defense	52nd (355.4)	66th (369.8)
Scoring Defense	56th (23.0)	60th (23.4)
Passing Yards Allowed	39th (199.4)	49th (210.4)
Rushing Yards Allowed	86th (156.0)	89th (159.4)
First Downs Allowed	85th (105)	45th (90)
3rd Down Defensive %	43rd (33.8%)	51st (34.8%)
4th Down Defensive %	47th (50.0%)	8th (16.7%)
Red Zone Defensive %	97th (88.2%)	17th (70.0%)
Turnovers Gained	28th (9)	28th (9)
Interceptions Caught	100th (2)	21st (6)
Fumbles Recovered	3rd (7)	60th (3)
Sacks Per Game	18th (3.00)	13th (3.20)
TFL Per Game	56th (6.0)	15th (7.4)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Virginia	Louisville
Net Punting	119th (34.21)	21st (41.84)
Avg. Kickoff Return	19th (25.46)	78th (19.64)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	113th (24.56)	59th (19.43)
Avg. Punt Return	130th (-0.20)	121st (3.00)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	112th (13.22)	63rd (6.80)
Field Goal Attempts	5-9	7-8
PAT	9-11	15-16

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 63.3 percent chance to win against the Cavaliers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 4.7 (50th overall), whereas Virginia has an FPI rating of -2.6 (78th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 56.54 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.6 (60th overall), whereas Virginia has an SP+ rating of -0.7 (78th overall).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

• Preseason: 6.57
• Post-Week 1: 4.74
• Post-Week 2: 5.70
• Post-Week 3: 5.08
• Post-Week 4: 5.71
• Post-Week 5: 4.65

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 24, Virginia 21.

(Photo via Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)

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