Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Miami
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (9-1, 6-1 ACC) is set to face Miami (4-4, 3-1 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 18 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Hard Rock Stadium in Coral Cables, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Hurricanes:
- Rankings:
| Miami | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY/CFP | NR/NR/NR | 9th/9th/9th |
SOS | 33rd | 99th |
SP+ | 26th | 21st |
FPI | 25th | 23rd |
Sagarin | 37th | 22nd |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Miami | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 37th (427.6) | 29th (439.0) |
Yards Per Play | 32nd (6.36) | 15th (6.71) |
Scoring Offense | 43rd (30.9) | 31st (32.7) |
Passing Yards | 45th (255.6) | 48th (251.1) |
Yards Per Completion | 77th (11.83) | 23rd (13.72) |
Rushing Yards | 46th (172.0) | 28th (187.9) |
Yards Per Rush Attempt | 20th (5.03) | 25th (4.98) |
First Downs Gained | 50th (216) | 56th (211) |
3rd Down Con. % | 56th (40.8%) | 89th (36.5%) |
4th Down Con. % | 86th (46.2%) | 54th (53.8%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 64th (84.6%) | 86th (80.6%) |
Turnovers Lost | 117th (20) | 38th (12) |
Interceptions Thrown | 114th (13) | 75th (9) |
Fumbles Lost | 83rd (7) | 15th (3) |
Tackles for Loss Allowed | 33rd (4.80) | 38th (4.90) |
Sacks Allowed | 19th (1.30) | 64th (2.00) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 21st (31:50) | 20th (31:54) |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Miami | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 19th (312.5) | 16th (300.1) |
Yards Allowed Per Play | 25th (4.99) | 24th (4.95) |
Scoring Defense | 34th (20.7) | 12th (17.1) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 66th (226.5) | 40th (208.2) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 6th (86.0) | 9th (91.9) |
First Downs Allowed | 17th (165) | 8th (154) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 36th (35.0%) | 6th (28.0%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 4th (20.0%) | 27th (40.0%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 90th (86.5%) | 3rd (66.7%) |
Turnovers Gained | 48th (15) | 18th (18) |
Interceptions Caught | 46th (9) | 19th (11) |
Fumbles Recovered | 46th (6) | 28th (7) |
TFL Per Game | 10th (7.7) | 23rd (2.70) |
Sacks Per Game | 7th (3.30) | 39th (6.2) |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Miami | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 38th (40.14) | 71st (38.54) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 11th (25.32) | 119th (16.38) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 63rd (19.57) | 67th (19.88) |
Avg. Punt Return | 85th (6.73) | 108th (4.68) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 87th (9.50) | 69th (7.43) |
Field Goal Attempts | 19-22 | 14-20 |
PAT | 32-33 | 39-40 |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 46.1 percent chance to win against the Hurricanes. Louisville has an FPI rating of 12.6 (23rd overall), whereas Miami has an FPI rating of 11.1 (25th overall).
- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 50.70 percent chance to take down the Hurricanes. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 12.0 (21st overall), whereas Miami has an SP+ rating of 9.2 (26th overall).
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 24, Miami 20.
(Photo via Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)
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