Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (10-1, 7-1 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (6-5, 3-5 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 25 at 12:00 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:

- Rankings:

	Kentucky	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY/CFP	NR/NR/NR	9th/9th/10th
SOS	22nd	74th
SOR	45th	10th
SP+	33rd	19th
FPI	41st	20th
Sagarin	44th	19th

- Offensive Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Offense	98th (338.7)	22nd (441.8)
Yards Per Play	47th (6.05)	15th (6.70)
Scoring Offense	64th (27.7)	26th (33.2)
Passing Yards	91st (203.5)	46th (256.3)
Yards Per Completion	53rd (12.23)	24th (13.62)
Rushing Yards	90th (135.2)	28th (185.5)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	18th (5.11)	27th (4.97)
First Downs Gained	105th (193)	47th (237)
3rd Down Con. %	71st (38.5%)	87th (37.0%
4th Down Con. %	130th (11.1%)	49th (57.1%)
Red Zone Con. %	100th (78.4%)	84th (80.5%)
Turnovers Lost	61st (15)	39th (13)
Interceptions Thrown	60th (9)	76th (10)
Fumbles Lost	59th (6)	12th (3)
Tackles for Loss Allowed	41st (5.00)	29th (4.73)
Sacks Allowed	41st (1.64)	56th (1.82)
Avg. Time of Possession	110th (28:14)	24th (31:46)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Defense	40th (347.8)	21st (317.0)
Yards Allowed Per Play	44th (5.28)	36th (5.20)
Scoring Defense	52nd (24.3)	17th (18.4)
Passing Yards Allowed	90th (238.2)	55th (219.0)
Rushing Yards Allowed	20th (109.6)	12th (98.0)
First Downs Allowed	65th (218)	10th (175)
3rd Down Defensive %	105th (43.4%)	11th (29.5%)
4th Down Defensive %	55th (50.0%)	31st (40.9%)
Red Zone Defensive %	110th (90.0%)	2nd (66.7%)
Turnovers Gained	79th (14)	30th (18)
Interceptions Caught	55th (9)	30th (11)
Fumbles Recovered	79th (5)	37th (7)
TFL Per Game	34th (6.3)	34th (6.3)
Sacks Per Game	49th (2.27)	34th (2.55)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Net Punting	98th (37.04)	60th (38.98)
Avg. Kickoff Return	22nd (22.94)	68th (20.10)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	99th (22.36)	65th (19.75)
Avg. Punt Return	58th (9.14)	111th (4.56)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	55th (6.78)	59th (7.12)
Field Goal Attempts	9-10	15-22
PAT	38-39	42-44

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 74.2 percent chance to win against the Wildcats. Louisville has an FPI rating of 13.3 (20th overall), whereas Kentucky has an FPI rating of 6.2 (41st overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 66.0 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 12.0 (19th overall), whereas Kentucky has an SP+ rating of 7.3 (33rd overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 35, Kentucky 21.

(Photo via Jordan Prather - USA TODAY Sports)

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