Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. USC
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (10-3, 7-1 ACC) is set to face USC (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12) for the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday, Dec. 27 at 8:00 p.m. EST at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Trojans:
- Rankings:
| USC | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY/CFP | NR/NR/NR | 16th/15th/15th |
SOS | 21st | 52nd |
SOR | 37th | 16th |
SP+ | 39th | 24th |
FPI | 21st | 22nd |
Sagarin | 21st | 26th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| USC | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 11th (469.7) | 42nd (419.3) |
Yards Per Play | 3rd (7.31) | 33rd (6.26) |
Scoring Offense | 4th (41.8) | 44th (30.9) |
Passing Yards | 5th (329.8) | 52nd (244.0) |
Yards Per Completion | 22nd (13.60) | 32nd (12.95) |
Rushing Yards | 89th (139.9) | 45th (175.3) |
Yards Per Rush Attempt | 26th (4.90) | 40th (4.67) |
First Downs Gained | 32nd (275) | 42nd (270) |
3rd Down Con. % | 44th (42.1%) | 90th (36.4%) |
4th Down Con. % | 44th (58.8%) | 64th (52.4%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 30th (89.1%) | 85th (80.9%) |
Turnovers Lost | 48th (16) | 57th (17) |
Interceptions Thrown | 6th (5) | 89th (12) |
Fumbles Lost | 114th (11) | 24th (5) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 35th (4.92) | 57th (5.38) |
Sacks Allowed | 105th (2.75) | 82nd (2.33) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 116th (28:01) | 21st (31:53) |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| USC | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 120th (438.8) | 16th (307.4) |
Yards Allowed Per Play | 112th (6.17) | 28th (5.10) |
Scoring Defense | 121st (34.9) | 22nd (19.7) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 115th (255.2) | 38th (205.4) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 113th (183.7) | 12th (102.0) |
First Downs Allowed | 107th (273) | 12th (203) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 104th (43.2%) | 6th (28.1%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 104th (60.0%) | 24th (41.7%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 121st (92.0%) | 1st (69.0%) |
Turnovers Gained | 98th (14) | 42nd (19) |
Interceptions Caught | 106th (7) | 29th (12) |
Fumbles Recovered | 55th (7) | 55th (7) |
TFL Per Game | 22nd (6.8) | 27th (6.4) |
Sacks Per Game | 47th (2.25) | 25th (2.62) |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| USC | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 24th (41.02) | 55th (39.17) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 89th (18.48) | 51st (20.82) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 107th (22.69) | 118th (23.96) |
Avg. Punt Return | 10th (16.70) | 112th (4.39) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 30th (5.00) | 55th (7.12) |
Field Goal Attempts | 10-13 | 18-25 |
PAT | 60-61 | 46-48 |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 46.7 percent chance to win against the Trojans. Louisville has an FPI rating of 11.4 (22nd overall), whereas USC has an FPI rating of 12.7 (21st overall).
- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 57.0 percent chance to take down the Trojans. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 10.8 (24th overall), whereas USC has an SP+ rating of 7.9 (39th overall).
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 45, USC 28.
(Photo of Louisville Players: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)
You can follow Louisville Report for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:
Facebook - @LouisvilleReport
Twitter - @UofLReport
Instagram - @louisville_report
You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter
