Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. USC

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Trojans for their Holiday Bowl matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (10-3, 7-1 ACC) is set to face USC (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12) for the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday, Dec. 27 at 8:00 p.m. EST at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Trojans:

- Rankings:

	USC	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY/CFP	NR/NR/NR	16th/15th/15th
SOS	21st	52nd
SOR	37th	16th
SP+	39th	24th
FPI	21st	22nd
Sagarin	21st	26th

- Offensive Statistics:

	USC	Louisville
Total Offense	11th (469.7)	42nd (419.3)
Yards Per Play	3rd (7.31)	33rd (6.26)
Scoring Offense	4th (41.8)	44th (30.9)
Passing Yards	5th (329.8)	52nd (244.0)
Yards Per Completion	22nd (13.60)	32nd (12.95)
Rushing Yards	89th (139.9)	45th (175.3)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	26th (4.90)	40th (4.67)
First Downs Gained	32nd (275)	42nd (270)
3rd Down Con. %	44th (42.1%)	90th (36.4%)
4th Down Con. %	44th (58.8%)	64th (52.4%)
Red Zone Con. %	30th (89.1%)	85th (80.9%)
Turnovers Lost	48th (16)	57th (17)
Interceptions Thrown	6th (5)	89th (12)
Fumbles Lost	114th (11)	24th (5)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	35th (4.92)	57th (5.38)
Sacks Allowed	105th (2.75)	82nd (2.33)
Avg. Time of Possession	116th (28:01)	21st (31:53)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	USC	Louisville
Total Defense	120th (438.8)	16th (307.4)
Yards Allowed Per Play	112th (6.17)	28th (5.10)
Scoring Defense	121st (34.9)	22nd (19.7)
Passing Yards Allowed	115th (255.2)	38th (205.4)
Rushing Yards Allowed	113th (183.7)	12th (102.0)
First Downs Allowed	107th (273)	12th (203)
3rd Down Defensive %	104th (43.2%)	6th (28.1%)
4th Down Defensive %	104th (60.0%)	24th (41.7%)
Red Zone Defensive %	121st (92.0%)	1st (69.0%)
Turnovers Gained	98th (14)	42nd (19)
Interceptions Caught	106th (7)	29th (12)
Fumbles Recovered	55th (7)	55th (7)
TFL Per Game	22nd (6.8)	27th (6.4)
Sacks Per Game	47th (2.25)	25th (2.62)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	USC	Louisville
Net Punting	24th (41.02)	55th (39.17)
Avg. Kickoff Return	89th (18.48)	51st (20.82)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	107th (22.69)	118th (23.96)
Avg. Punt Return	10th (16.70)	112th (4.39)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	30th (5.00)	55th (7.12)
Field Goal Attempts	10-13	18-25
PAT	60-61	46-48

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 46.7 percent chance to win against the Trojans. Louisville has an FPI rating of 11.4 (22nd overall), whereas USC has an FPI rating of 12.7 (21st overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 57.0 percent chance to take down the Trojans. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 10.8 (24th overall), whereas USC has an SP+ rating of 7.9 (39th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 45, USC 28.

(Photo of Louisville Players: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)

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