Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Duke

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-1, 3-1 ACC) is set to face Duke (5-2, 2-1 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 28 at 3:30 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:

- Rankings:

	Duke	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY	20th/21st	18th/18th
SOS	21st	98th
SP+	26th	27th
FPI	23rd	27th
Sagarin	27th	32nd

- Offensive Statistics:

	Duke	Louisville
Total Offense	77th (371.6)	18th (460.7)
Yards Per Play	39th (6.24)	17th (6.74)
Scoring Offense	60th (29.6)	28th (34.1)
Passing Yards	113th (173.3)	27th (285.7)
Yards Per Completion	62nd (12.25)	17th (14.18)
Rushing Yards	18th (198.3)	44th (175.0)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	8th (5.62)	39th (4.75)
First Downs Gained	95th (135)	52nd (155)
3rd Down Con. %	83rd (38.3%)	73rd (39.5%)
4th Down Con. %	60th (50.0%)	60th (50.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	89th (80.0%)	79th (81.5%)
Turnovers Lost	24th (7)	78th (11)
Interceptions Thrown	8th (3)	94th (8)
Fumbles Lost	65th (4)	32nd (3)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	24th (4.43)	33rd (4.71)
Sacks Allowed	7th (0.71)	79th (2.14)
Avg. Time of Possession	91st (29:09)	39th (31:04)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Duke	Louisville
Total Defense	24th (315.9)	25th (317.9)
Yards Allowed Per Play	17th (4.69)	32nd (5.08)
Scoring Defense	5th (13.9)	39th (20.6)
Passing Yards Allowed	15th (179.4)	62nd (220.7)
Rushing Yards Allowed	60th (136.4)	14th (97.1)
First Downs Allowed	51st (135)	13th (112)
3rd Down Defensive %	76th (39.2%)	18th (30.9%)
4th Down Defensive %	14th (33.3%)	42nd (42.9%)
Red Zone Defensive %	2nd (61.1%)	4th (64.3%)
Turnovers Gained	62nd (10)	13th (14)
Interceptions Caught	56th (6)	28th (8)
Fumbles Recovered	46th (4)	18th (6)
Sacks Per Game	65th (2.14)	65th (2.14)
TFL Per Game	64th (5.9)	79th (5.6)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Duke	Louisville
Net Punting	4th (44.88)	96th (37.04)
Avg. Kickoff Return	54th (20.75)	111th (16.80)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	118th (24.94)	68th (19.91)
Avg. Punt Return	23rd (12.78)	101st (4.89)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	17th (2.50)	42nd (5.80
Field Goal Attempts	8-12	10-14
PAT	25-25	29-29

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 53.5 percent chance to win against the Blue Devils. Louisville has an FPI rating of 9.6 (27th overall), whereas Duke has an FPI rating of 11.8 (23rd overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 53.74 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 10.7 (27th overall), whereas Duke has an SP+ rating of 11.6 (26th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Duke 24.

(Photo of Jawhar Jordan: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)

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