Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Duke
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-1, 3-1 ACC) is set to face Duke (5-2, 2-1 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 28 at 3:30 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:
- Rankings:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | 20th/21st | 18th/18th |
SOS | 21st | 98th |
SP+ | 26th | 27th |
FPI | 23rd | 27th |
Sagarin | 27th | 32nd |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 77th (371.6) | 18th (460.7) |
Yards Per Play | 39th (6.24) | 17th (6.74) |
Scoring Offense | 60th (29.6) | 28th (34.1) |
Passing Yards | 113th (173.3) | 27th (285.7) |
Yards Per Completion | 62nd (12.25) | 17th (14.18) |
Rushing Yards | 18th (198.3) | 44th (175.0) |
Yards Per Rush Attempt | 8th (5.62) | 39th (4.75) |
First Downs Gained | 95th (135) | 52nd (155) |
3rd Down Con. % | 83rd (38.3%) | 73rd (39.5%) |
4th Down Con. % | 60th (50.0%) | 60th (50.0%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 89th (80.0%) | 79th (81.5%) |
Turnovers Lost | 24th (7) | 78th (11) |
Interceptions Thrown | 8th (3) | 94th (8) |
Fumbles Lost | 65th (4) | 32nd (3) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 24th (4.43) | 33rd (4.71) |
Sacks Allowed | 7th (0.71) | 79th (2.14) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 91st (29:09) | 39th (31:04) |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 24th (315.9) | 25th (317.9) |
Yards Allowed Per Play | 17th (4.69) | 32nd (5.08) |
Scoring Defense | 5th (13.9) | 39th (20.6) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 15th (179.4) | 62nd (220.7) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 60th (136.4) | 14th (97.1) |
First Downs Allowed | 51st (135) | 13th (112) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 76th (39.2%) | 18th (30.9%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 14th (33.3%) | 42nd (42.9%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 2nd (61.1%) | 4th (64.3%) |
Turnovers Gained | 62nd (10) | 13th (14) |
Interceptions Caught | 56th (6) | 28th (8) |
Fumbles Recovered | 46th (4) | 18th (6) |
Sacks Per Game | 65th (2.14) | 65th (2.14) |
TFL Per Game | 64th (5.9) | 79th (5.6) |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 4th (44.88) | 96th (37.04) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 54th (20.75) | 111th (16.80) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 118th (24.94) | 68th (19.91) |
Avg. Punt Return | 23rd (12.78) | 101st (4.89) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 17th (2.50) | 42nd (5.80 |
Field Goal Attempts | 8-12 | 10-14 |
PAT | 25-25 | 29-29 |
Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 53.5 percent chance to win against the Blue Devils. Louisville has an FPI rating of 9.6 (27th overall), whereas Duke has an FPI rating of 11.8 (23rd overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 53.74 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 10.7 (27th overall), whereas Duke has an SP+ rating of 11.6 (26th overall).
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Duke 24.
(Photo of Jawhar Jordan: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)
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