Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Pitt

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Panthers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Oct 14, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Jamari Thrash (1) runs after a catch out of the grasp of Pittsburgh Panthers defensive back Phillip O'Brien Jr. (5) during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-4, 4-3 ACC) is set to face Pitt (7-3, 3-3 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 4:00 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Panthers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Pitt	Louisville
AP/USAT	RV/RV	RV/RV
CFP	NR	NR
SOS	69th	22nd
SOR	31st	29th
SP+	41st	22nd
FPI	41st	17th
Sagarin	43rd	29th
Kelley Ford	44th	18th
CFB Insiders	50th	15th

Offensive Statistics

	Pitt	Louisville
Total Offense	40th (428.8)	20th (447.8)
Yards Per Play	41st (6.21)	10th (6.86)
Scoring Offense	24th (35.0)	15th (36.1)
Passing Yards	16th (284.4)	15th (284.8)
Yards Per Completion	81st (11.75)	50th (12.44)
Rushing Yards	83rd (144.4)	62nd (163.0)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	48th (4.78)	11th (5.49)
First Downs Gained	24th (231)	58th (212)
3rd Down Con. %	105th (36.2%)	84th (37.9%)
4th Down Con. %	20th (66.7%)	104th (44.4%)
Red Zone Con. %	33rd (89.2%)	80th (83.3%)
Turnovers Lost	44th (12)	25th (10)
Interceptions Thrown	79th (9)	29th (6)
Fumbles Lost	18th (3)	34th (4)
Tackles for Loss Allowed	122nd (7.20)	15th (4.00)
Sacks Allowed	114th (3.00)	28th (1.30)
Avg. Time of Possession	131st (25:45)	94th (29:00)

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Pitt	Louisville
Total Defense	62nd (359.9)	74th (372.8)
Yards Allowed Per Play	24th (4.86)	52nd (5.33)
Scoring Defense	69th (25.0)	73rd (25.6)
Passing Yards Allowed	112th (255.3)	88th (233.3)
Rushing Yards Allowed	13th (104.6)	59th (139.5)
First Downs Allowed	85th (204)	70th (198)
3rd Down Defensive %	28th (33.8%)	61st (37.9%)
4th Down Defensive %	106th (64.0%)	122nd (70.4%)
Red Zone Defensive %	60th (82.8%)	86th (86.2%)
Turnovers Gained	34th (16)	123rd (8)
Interceptions Caught	19th (12)	125th (3)
Fumbles Recovered	84th (4)	59th (5)
TFL Per Game	2nd (8.7)	34th (6.4)
Sacks Per Game	3rd (3.50)	36th (2.50)

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics:

	Pitt	Louisville
Net Punting	33rd (40.79)	110th (36.75)
Avg. Kickoff Return	71st (19.67)	61st (20.29)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	122nd (23.92)	30th (17.41)
Avg. Punt Return	43rd (10.00)	118th (4.15)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	18th (3.71)	35th (5.29)
Field Goal Attempts	17-20	13-20
PAT	39-39	46-46

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 75.2 percent chance to win against the Panthers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 13.4 (17th overall), whereas Pitt has an FPI rating of 6.2 (41st overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 67.68 percent chance to take down the Panthers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 12.1 (22nd overall), whereas Pitt has an SP+ rating of 6.8 (41st overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have an 81 percent chance to defeat the Panthers. Louisville has a KFord rating of 13.6 (18th overall), whereas Pitt has a KFord rating of 6.0 (44th overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 61.00 percent chance to take down the Panthers. Louisville has an IPR rating of 63.0 (15th overall), whereas Stanford has an IPR rating of 51.5 (50th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 31, Pitt 28

(Photo of Jamari Thrash: Charles LeClaire - Imagn Images)

You can follow Louisville Cardinals On SI for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram:

Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter/X - @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram - @louisvilleonsi

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter/X