Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals defensive lineman Kameron Wilson (15) celebrates after sacking Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Devin Leary (13) in the first half. Nov. 24, 2023 / Matt Stone/The Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (7-4, 5-3 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (4-7, 1-7 SEC) on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Kentucky	Louisvile
AP/USAT	NR/NR	RV/RV
CFP	NR	NR
SOS	3rd	18th
SOR	60th	29th
SP+	46th	19th
FPI	42nd	13th
Sagarin	50th	25th
Kelley Ford	37th	15th
CFB Insiders	50th	28th

Offensive Statistics

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Offense	115th (330.6)	15th (453.0)
Yards Per Play	112th (5.21)	8th (6.86)
Scoring Offense	113th (21.2)	17th (36.2)
Passing Yards	109th (185.9)	13th (285.5)
Yards Per Completion	35th (13.03)	40th (12.77)
Rushing Yards	83rd (144.7)	62nd (167.5)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	95th (3.88)	15th (5.39)
First Downs Gained	79th (220)	48th (238)
3rd Down Con. %	106th (35.6%)	76th (39.8%)
4th Down Con. %	101st (45.8%)	115th (42.1%)
Red Zone Con. %	93rd (81.3%)	93rd (81.3%)
Turnovers Lost	94th (18)	21st (10)
Interceptions Thrown	121st (14)	22nd (6)
Fumbles Lost	28th (4)	28th (4)
Tackles for Loss Allowed	93rd (6.00)	19th (4.09)
Sacks Allowed	115th (3.00)	31st (1.36)
Avg. Time of Possession	76th (29:58)	84th (29:30)

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Defense	37th (332.7)	62nd (363.0)
Yards Allowed Per Play	76th (5.67)	45th (5.25)
Scoring Defense	26th (20.4)	63rd (24.1)
Passing Yards Allowed	28th (188.7)	86th (229.4)
Rushing Yards Allowed	63rd (144.0)	49th (133.6)
First Downs Allowed	27th (192)	66th (216)
3rd Down Defensive %	78th (40.3%)	57th (37.0%)
4th Down Defensive %	130th (75.0%)	116th (66.7%)
Red Zone Defensive %	4th (70.5%)	75th (83.9%)
Turnovers Gained	57th (15)	107th (11)
Interceptions Caught	47th (10)	103rd (6)
Fumbles Recovered	68th (5)	68th (5)
TFL Per Game	54th (5.8)	33rd (6.5)
Sacks Per Game	51st (2.18)	37th (6.5)

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Net Punting	16th (41.68)	111th (36.60)
Avg. Kickoff Return	40th (21.75)	67th (20.29)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	24th (16.93)	36th (18.10)
Avg. Punt Return	63rd (8.33)	108th (5.00)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	3rd (2.50)	27th (5.00)
Field Goal Attempts	15-16	16-23
PAT	24-25	50-50

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 70.1 percent chance to win against the Wildcats. Louisville has an FPI rating of 15.1 (13th overall), whereas Kentucky has an FPI rating of 6.0 (42nd overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 59.30 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 12.6 (19th overall), whereas Kentucky has an SP+ rating of 6.1 (46th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 60 percent chance to defeat the Wildcats. Louisville has a KFord rating of 13.6 (18th overall), whereas Kentucky has a KFord rating of 7.9 (37th overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 64.46 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an IPR rating of 57.5 (28th overall), whereas Kentucky has an IPR rating of 51.0 (50th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 31, Kentucky 24

(Photo via Matt Stone - The Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

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