Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Washington

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Huskies for their Sun Bowl matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Nov 30, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; A Louisville Cardinals cheerleader runs with the Cardinal flag during the third quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (8-4, 5-3 ACC) is set to face Washington (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten) in the Sun Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 2:00 p.m. EST at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Huskies:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Washington	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	RV/RV
CFP	NR	NR
SOS	12th	28th
SOR	46th	25th
SP+	61st	18th
FPI	45th	12th
Sagarin	47th	17th
Kelley Ford	49th	13th
CFB Insiders	41st	11th

Offensive Statistics

	Washington	Louisville
Total Offense	68th (383.7)	10th (455.8)
Yards Per Play	52nd (5.96)	3rd (6.88)
Scoring Offense	109th (22.5)	9th (36.6)
Passing Yards	39th (252.3)	20th (272.4)
Yards Per Completion	113th (10.97)	37th (12.82)
Rushing Yards	93rd (131.3)	37th (183.3)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	85th (4.07)	9th (5.60)
First Downs Gained	76th (248)	57th (261)
3rd Down Con. %	102nd (36.4%)	74th (39.7%)
4th Down Con. %	101st (45.8%)	(116th (40.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	85th (82.2%)	95th (80.8%)
Turnovers Lost	19th (11)	19th (11)
Interceptions Thrown	26th (7)	10th (6)
Fumbles Lost	15th (4)	30th (5)
Tackles for Loss Allowed	87th (5.83)	19th (4.17)
Sacks Allowed	111th (2.83)	23rd (1.25)
Avg. Time of Possession	66th (30:10)	73rd (29:57)

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Washington	Louisville
Total Defense	27th (324.8)	58th (360.1)
Yards Allowed Per Play	28th (5.00)	49th (5.28)
Scoring Defense	45th (22.8)	52nd (23.3)
Passing Yards Allowed	5th (166.8)	80th (224.7)
Rushing Yards Allowed	83rd (158.1)	43rd (135.4)
First Downs Allowed	69th (241)	40th (229)
3rd Down Defensive %	106th (43.9%)	39th (35.5%)
4th Down Defensive %	91st (57.1%)	112th (64.5%)
Red Zone Defensive %	53rd (81.0%)	63rd (81.8%)
Turnovers Gained	91st (14)	69th (16)
Interceptions Caught	93rd (8)	75th (9)
Fumbles Recovered	69th (6)	49th (7)
TFL Per Game	132nd (3.6)	39th (6.4)
Sacks Per Game	90th (1.67)	40th (2.42)

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics:

	Washington	Louisville
Net Punting	131st (34.49)	109th (36.74)
Avg. Kickoff Return	30th (22.42)	60th (20.53)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	92nd (21.83)	24th (17.42)
Avg. Punt Return	74th (7.27)	106th (5.13)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	126th (14.94)	31st (5.00)
Field Goal Attempts	18-26	18-25
PAT	26-26	55-55

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 74.8 percent chance to win against the Huskies. Louisville has an FPI rating of 16.4 (12th overall), whereas Washington has an FPI rating of 5.1 (45th overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 76.89 percent chance to take down the Huskies. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 15.5 (18th overall), whereas Washington has an SP+ rating of 3.0 (61st overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 73 percent chance to defeat the Huskies. Louisville has a KFord rating of 16.5 (14th overall), whereas Washington has a KFord rating of 5.1 (48th overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 71.99 percent chance to take down the Huskies. Louisville has an IPR rating of 65.5 (11th overall), whereas Washington has an IPR rating of 53.5 (41st overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Washington 24

(Photo via Jordan Prather - Imagn Images)

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