Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Notre Dame

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Fighting Irish for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Oct 7, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Isaac Guerendo (23) runs the ball against Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Rylie Mills (99) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated Notre Dame 33-20. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-0, 1-0 ACC) is set to face Notre Dame (3-1) on Saturday, Sept. 28 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Ind. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Fighting Irish:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

- Rankings:

	ND	UofL
AP/USA TODAY	16th/14th	15th/17th
SOS	47th	124th
SOR	36th	22nd
SP+	11th	12th
FPI	9th	11th
Sagarin	8th	19th
Kelley Ford	9th	13th
CFB Insiders	9th	13th

- Offensive Statistics:

	ND	UofL
Total Offense	55th (412.0)	14th (502.3)
Yards Per Play	45th (6.36)	4th (8.42)
Scoring Offense	48th (32.8)	12th (47.3)
Passing Yards	108th (173.8)	18th (308.0)
Yards Per Completion	122nd (9.52)	19th (14.67)
Rushing Yards	18th (238.3)	37th (194.3)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	5th (6.71)	9th (6.41)
First Downs Gained	35th (86)	96th (66)
3rd Down Con. %	78th (38.6%)	34th (46.9%)
4th Down Con. %	75th (50.0%)	1st (100.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	51st (88.9%)	74th (84.6%)
Turnovers Lost	52nd (4)	1st (0)
Interceptions Thrown	34th (2)	1st (0)
Fumbles Lost	61st (2)	1st (0)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	41st (4.25)	9th (3.00)
Sacks Allowed	73rd (1.75)	11th (0.67)
Avg. Time of Possession	55th (30:42)	34th (31:48)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	ND	UofL
Total Defense	16th (256.3)	22nd (268.7)
Yards Allowed Per Play	17th (4.17)	20th (4.31)
Scoring Defense	10th (9.8)	13th (11.0)
Passing Yards Allowed	18th (135.3)	44th (181.3)
Rushing Yards Allowed	51st (121.0)	18th (87.3)
First Downs Allowed	29th (56)	14th (46)
3rd Down Defensive %	10th (24.5%)	9th (23.8%)
4th Down Defensive %	8th (16.7%)	95th (66.7%)
Red Zone Defensive %	36th (75.0%)	14th (66.7%)
Turnovers Gained	41st (6)	73rd (4)
Interceptions Caught	8th (6)	78th (2)
Fumbles Recovered	N/A (0)	44th (2)
TFL Per Game	118th (4.0)	7th (8.7)
Sacks Per Game	46th (2.25)	14th (3.00)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	ND	UofL
Net Punting	68th (38.78)	103rd (36.29)
Avg. Kickoff Return	83rd (18.00)	125th (12.00)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	44th (17.33)	77th (19.00)
Avg. Punt Return	82nd (7.00)	74th (7.89)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	75th (7.80)	20th (1.00)
Field Goal Attempts	4-6	3-6
PAT	17-17	19-19

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 32.4 percent chance to win against the Fighting Irish. Louisville has an FPI rating of 15.7 (11th overall), whereas Notre Dame has an FPI rating of 19.7 (9th overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 35.33 percent chance to take down the Fighting Irish. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 17.2 (12th overall), whereas Notre Dame has an FPI rating of 21.1 (11th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 25 percent chance to take down the Fighting Irish. Louisville has a KFord rating of 15.9 (13th overall), whereas Notre Dame has a KFord rating of 21.5 (8th overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 39.8 percent chance to take down the Fighting Irish. Louisville has an IPR rating of 61.5 (13th overall), whereas Notre Dame has an IPR rating of 66.5 (9th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 17, Notre Dame 14.

(Photo of Isaac Guerendo: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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