Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. SMU

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Sep 21, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Jadon Thompson (2) tries to break free from the tackle of Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defensive back Ahmari Harvey (3) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-1, 1-0 ACC) is set to face SMU (4-1, 1-0 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 5 at 12:00 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

- Rankings:

	SMU	UofL
AP/USA TODAY	RV/RV	22nd/22nd
SOS	95th	34th
SOR	40th	36th
SP+	26th	14th
FPI	19th	12th
Sagarin	24th	17th
Kelley Ford	21st	13th
CFB Insiders	22nd	13th

- Offensive Statistics:

	SMU	UofL
Total Offense	55th (419.4)	17th (475.5)
Yards Per Play	63rd (5.94)	11th (7.46)
Scoring Offense	13th (42.2)	17th (41.5)
Passing Yards	84th (213.8)	23rd (297.0)
Yards Per Completion	53rd (12.73)	27th (13.66)
Rushing Yards	27th (205.6)	54th (178.5)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	63rd (4.74)	24th (5.67)
First Downs Gained	14th (115th)	85th (85)
3rd Down Con. %	35th (46.4%)	44th (44.9%)
4th Down Con. %	67th (54.5%)	98th (42.9%)
Red Zone Con. %	87th (81.8%)	91st (81.3%)
Turnovers Lost	82nd (7)	15th (3)
Interceptions Thrown	23rd (2)	7th (1)
Fumbles Lost	119th (5)	50th (2)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	61st (5.00)	25th (4.00)
Sacks Allowed	36th (1.20)	42nd (1.25)
Avg. Time of Possession	64th (30:15)	31st (31:52)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	SMU	UofL
Total Defense	38th (311.2)	17th (271.5)
Yards Allowed Per Play	32nd (4.77)	24th (4.51)
Scoring Defense	51st (21.4)	26th (16.0)
Passing Yards Allowed	82nd (222.4)	34th (176.8)
Rushing Yards Allowed	16th (88.8)	23rd (94.8)
First Downs Allowed	48th (79)	7th (57)
3rd Down Defensive %	45th (34.3%)	5th (23.1%)
4th Down Defensive %	42nd (41.7%)	102nd (66.7%)
Red Zone Defensive %	111th (93.8)	31st (75.0%)
Turnovers Gained	1st (14)	62nd (6)
Interceptions Caught	2nd (9)	95th (2)
Fumbles Recovered	7th (5)	17th (4)
TFL Per Game	80th (5.4)	12th (7.8)
Sacks Per Game	101st (1.4)	34th (2.5)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	SMU	UofL
Net Punting	126th (34.27)	115th (35.40)
Avg. Kickoff Return	57th (20.20)	128th (11.67)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	36th (16.80)	75th (19.17)
Avg. Punt Return	53rd (10.00)	82nd (7.00)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	89th (9.50)	33rd (4.00)
Field Goal Attempts	11-14	4-7
PAT	20-20	22-22

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 67.1 percent chance to win against the Mustangs. Louisville has an FPI rating of 15.3 (12th overall), whereas SMU has an FPI rating of 11.3 (19th overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 63.13 percent chance to take down the Mustamgs. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 15.8 (14th overall), whereas SMU has an FPI rating of 12.6 (26th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 73 percent chance to defeat the Mustangs. Louisville has a KFord rating of 15.8 (13th overall), whereas SMU has a KFord rating of 12.0 (21st overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 53.85 percent chance to take down the Mustangs. Louisville has an IPR rating of 62 (13th overall), whereas SMU has an IPR rating of 58 (22 overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 35, SMU 31.

(Photo of Jadon Thompson: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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