Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Nov 9, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Kevin Coleman (3) runs the ball against Virginia Cavaliers safety Jonas Sanker (20) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated Virginia 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-2, 1-2 ACC) is set to face Virginia (4-1, 2-0 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 12 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

- Rankings:

	UVA	UofL
AP/USA TODAY	NR/NR	RV/RV
SOS	107th	33rd
SOR	37th	54th
SP+	56th	20th
FPI	61st	16th
Sagarin	64th	23rd
Kelley Ford	64th	16th
CFB Insiders	67th	19th

- Offensive Statistics:

	UVA	UofL
Total Offense	44th (432.2)	15th (472.6)
Yards Per Play	45th (6.23)	12th (7.29)
Scoring Offense	68th (29.0)	20th (38.6)
Passing Yards	46th (252.0)	14th (303.4)
Yards Per Completion	67th (6.75)	21st (13.92)
Rushing Yards	53rd (180.2)	61st (169.2)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	64th (4.74)	28th (5.29)
First Downs Gained	66th (108)	73rd (106)
3rd Down Con. %	108th (33.8%)	56th (42.6%)
4th Down Con. %	57th (58.3%)	94th (45.5%)
Red Zone Con. %	102nd (78.3%)	110th (75.0%)
Turnovers Lost	67th (7)	19th (4)
Interceptions Thrown	80th (5)	17th (2)
Fumbles Lost	43rd (2)	43rd (2)
Tackles for Loss Allowed	27th (4.20)	34th (4.40)
Sacks Allowed	57th (1.60)	57th (1.60)
Avg. Time of Possession	75th (29:45)	21st (32:22)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	UVA	UofL
Total Defense	86th (379.0)	33rd (313.4)
Yards Allowed Per Play	77th (5.59)	53rd (5.15)
Scoring Defense	48th (21.6)	37th (19.6)
Passing Yards Allowed	118th (266.4)	53rd (199.6)
Rushing Yards Allowed	35th (112.6)	37th (113.8)
First Downs Allowed	34th (90)	21st (82)
3rd Down Defensive %	45th (34.7%)	7th (27.0%)
4th Down Defensive %	89th (60.0%)	102nd (66.7%)
Red Zone Defensive %	115th (94.4%)	62nd (83.3%)
Turnovers Gained	55th (7)	75th (6)
Interceptions Caught	81st (3)	103rd (2)
Fumbles Recovered	24th (4)	24th (4)
TFL Per Game	98th (4.8)	31st (6.8)
Sacks Per Game	59th (2.00)	59th (2.00)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	UVA	UofL
Net Punting	15th (43.16)	127th (34.33)
Avg. Kickoff Return	55th (20.33)	127th (12.82)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	13th (13.38)	70th (19.17)
Avg. Punt Return	61st (9.00)	92nd (6.07)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	67th (6.75)	30th (4.00)
Field Goal Attempts	11-13	6-9
PAT	14-14	25-25

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 76.5 percent chance to win against the Cavaliers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 13.9 (16th overall), whereas Virginia has an FPI rating of 1.7 (61st overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 65.11 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 14.6 (20th overall), whereas Virginia has an FPI rating of 5.5 (56th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 77 percent chance to defeat the Cavaliers. Louisville has a KFord rating of 14.3 (16th overall), whereas Virginia has a KFord rating of 1.7 (64th overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 47.61 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an IPR rating of 60 (19th overall), whereas Virginia has an IPR rating of 46 (67 overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Virginia 27.

(Photo of Kevin Coleman Jr.: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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