Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Boston College

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Eagles for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Sep 23, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte (9) sacks Boston College Eagles quarterback Thomas Castellanos (1) during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-3, 2-2 ACC) is set to face Boston College (4-3, 1-2 ACC) on Friday, Oct. 25 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Mass. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Eagles:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

- Rankings:

	BC	UofL
AP/USA TODAY	NR/NR	NR/NR
SOS	62nd	14th
SOR	53rd	43rd
SP+	65th	21st
FPI	56th	17th
Sagarin	71st	26th
Kelley Ford	59th	19th
CFB Insiders	58th	18th

- Offensive Statistics:

	BC	UofL
Total Offense	96th (355.4)	18th (459.9)
Yards Per Play	83rd (5.65)	12th (7.03)
Scoring Offense	81st (26.3)	20th (37.4)
Passing Yards	97th (197.0)	14th (298.6)
Yards Per Completion	35th (13.13)	28th (13.23)
Rushing Yards	68th (158.4)	64th (161.3)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	87th (3.97)	22nd (5.33)
First Downs Gained	99th (130)	56th (148)
3rd Down Con. %	19th (47.8%)	78th (38.6%)
4th Down Con. %	75th (50.0%)	68th (53.3%)
Red Zone Con. %	128th (69.6%)	109th (76.7%)
Turnovers Lost	93rd (12)	21st (6)
Interceptions Thrown	48th (5)	14th (3)
Fumbles Lost	119th (7)	43rd (3)
Tackles for Loss Allowed	49th (5.00)	42nd (4.86)
Sacks Allowed	105th (2.71)	61st (1.86)
Avg. Time of Possession	59th (30:37)	65th (30:24)

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	BC	UofL
Total Defense	58th (351.7)	72nd (364.9)
Yards Allowed Per Play	61st (5.39)	76th (5.58)
Scoring Defense	38th (20.7)	69th (24.3)
Passing Yards Allowed	54th (209.4)	92nd (231.)
Rushing Yards Allowed	65th (142.3)	55th (133.7)
First Downs Allowed	50th (128)	62nd (131)
3rd Down Defensive %	48th (35.3%)	50th (35.4%)
4th Down Defensive %	91st (60.0%)	104th (64.3%)
Red Zone Defensive %	40th (80.0%)	74th (84.2%)
Turnovers Gained	20th (13)	98th (7)
Interceptions Caught	15th (9)	120th (2)
Fumbles Recovered	44th (4)	27th (5)
TFL Per Game	107th (4.6)	35th (6.6)
Sacks Per Game	76th (1.86)	47th (2.29)

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	BC	UofL
Net Punting	122nd (35.28)	104th (37.06)
Avg. Kickoff Return	126th (14.40)	66th (20.17)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	6th (13.27)	56th (18.60)
Avg. Punt Return	96th (5.69)	117th (4.05)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	29th (4.17)	42nd (5.60)
Field Goal Attempts	1-1	8-13
PAT	25-26	34-34

Key: National Rank out of 134 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 71.2 percent chance to win against the Eagles. Louisville has an FPI rating of 13.8 (17th overall), whereas Boston College has an FPI rating of 3.2 (56th overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 64.67 percent chance to take down the Eagles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 11.9 (21st overall), whereas Boston College has an FPI rating of 3.0 (65th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 77 percent chance to defeat the Eagles. Louisville has a KFord rating of 14.2 (19th overall), whereas Boston College has a KFord rating of 2.8 (59th overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 61.69 percent chance to take down the Hurricanes. Louisville has an IPR rating of 60 (18th overall), whereas Miami has an IPR rating of 48 (58th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 31, Boston College 28.

(Photo of Ashton Gillotte: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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