Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Miami

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Hurricanes for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Nov 18, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (22) runs with the football against the Louisville Cardinals during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-2, 2-1 ACC) is set to face Miami (6-0, 2-0 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 12 at 3:30 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Hurricanes:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

- Rankings:

	Miami	UofL
AP/USA TODAY	6th/6th	RV/RV
SOS	71st	27th
SOR	4th	35th
SP+	8th	20th
FPI	10th	16th
Sagarin	12th	22nd
Kelley Ford	9th	16th
CFB Insiders	11th	18th

- Offensive Statistics:

	Miami	UofL
Total Offense	1st (583.8)	22nd (461.8)
Yards Per Play	1st (8.15)	13th (7.18)
Scoring Offense	1st (47.7)	23rd (36.2)
Passing Yards	1st (400.0)	21st (291.3)
Yards Per Completion	14th (14.55)	22nd (13.76)
Rushing Yards	46th (183.8)	60th (170.5)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	13th (5.63)	22nd (5.36)
First Downs Gained	2nd (168)	73rd (124)
3rd Down Con. %	1st (60.3%)	68th (40.8%)
4th Down Con. %	43rd (62.5%)	107th (41.7%)
Red Zone Con. %	33rd (90.9%)	120th (73.1%)
Turnovers Lost	31st (6)	20th (5)
Interceptions Thrown	65th (5)	25th (3)
Fumbles Lost	5th (1)	33rd (2)
Tackles for Loss Allowed	19th (3.83)	40th (4.67)
Sacks Allowed	51st (1.50)	61st (1.67)
Avg. Time of Possession	4th (34:08)	49th (31:11)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Miami	UofL
Total Defense	14th (282.5)	43rd (336.0)
Yards Allowed Per Play	24th (4.86)	55th (5.22)
Scoring Defense	26th (18.8)	32nd (19.7)
Passing Yards Allowed	40th (192.8)	70th (216.5)
Rushing Yards Allowed	11th (89.7)	42nd (119.5)
First Downs Allowed	18th (98)	31st (104)
3rd Down Defensive %	13th (30.7%)	20th (30.9%)
4th Down Defensive %	29th (42.9%)	84th (58.3%)
Red Zone Defensive %	34th (76.9%)	54th (81.3)
Turnovers Gained	26th (10)	94th (6)
Interceptions Caught	5th (10)	114th (2)
Fumbles Recovered	N/A	31st (4)
TFL Per Game	12th (7.8)	16th (7.2)
Sacks Per Game	7th (3.33)	51st (2.17)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Miami	UofL
Net Punting	100th (37.50)	115th (35.87)
Avg. Kickoff Return	20th (24.67)	129th (13.23)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	74th (19.80)	54th (18.43)
Avg. Punt Return	62nd (9.00)	111th (4.33)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	111th (12.00)	36th (5.00)
Field Goal Attempts	8-9	7-11
PAT	34-34	28-28

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 44.6 percent chance to win against the Hurricanes. Louisville has an FPI rating of 14.0 (16th overall), whereas Miami has an FPI rating of 17.7 (10th overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 36.43 percent chance to take down the Hurricanes. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 13.7 (20th overall), whereas Miami has an FPI rating of 22.1 (8th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 47 percent chance to defeat the Hurricanes. Louisville has a KFord rating of 14.2 (16th overall), whereas Miami has a KFord rating of 19.8 (9th overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 25.55 percent chance to take down the Hurricanes. Louisville has an IPR rating of 60 (18th overall), whereas Miami has an IPR rating of 65 (11th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 35, Miami 34.

(Photo via Sam Navarro - Imagn Images)

You can follow Louisville Cardinals On SI for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram:

Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter/X - @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram - @louisvilleonsi

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter/X