Three Keys to Louisville's Second Half of 2023
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Louisville football program is just past the halfway point of their 2023 season, and it's safe to say that it has been a successful year up to this point.
The No. 21 Cardinals (6-1, 3-1 ACC) might have head into their bye week coming off of a stunning upset loss at Pitt, but prior to that, it had been a perfect campaign. The won their first six games in a season for the first time since 2013, including a statement victory over No. 10 Notre Dame.
Their win/loss record might not be perfect anymore, but so far is has been a great campaign under first year head coach and former Cardinal Jeff Brohm. But if the Cardinals are going to parlay this strong start into the the second half of the season, here are the three keys to doing so:
Jack Plummer Must Improve His Decision Making and Awareness
Up to this point in the season, we've seen highs and lows from quarterback Jack Plummer. When he is operating at his peak efficiency, he goes from a player who is more of a field general to someone who can be a legitimate game changer. After all, when you throw for 1,901 passing yards (15th in FBS, 2nd in in ACC) and 13 passing touchdowns (29th in FBS, 3rd in ACC), you have to be doing something right.
But on the other side of that coin, there have been times where Plummer's decision making and overall awareness has either put Louisville at a disadvantage or outright cost them the game (see Pitt).
For all the production he has put up through the air, that has also come with eight interceptions. That not only leads the ACC, but it's tied for the fourth-most in the FBS and second-most in the Power Five. While a few of these picks aren't necessarily all on Plummer, such as ones that came as a result of a dropped or tipped pass, a few of them have been a direct result of bad reads or questionable decisions (like the ones thrown against Georgia Tech or NC State).
It's not just his actual throws that he needs to be more consistent with, either. There have been several instances this season where his pocket awareness or ability to read the defensive line/front seven hasn't been there, and it directly results in a sack or fumble. It's one thing to expect this from a first or second year player, not a sixth-year senior who has taken nearly 1,300 dropbacks in his career.
Plus, he has to shake his tendency of wanting to throw the ball away whenever he hasn't escaped the pocket yet. It's gotten to the point where he has amassed so many intentional grounding penalties that he is tied with Shedeur Sanders for the second-most penalties amongst Power Five quarterbacks with five. Wake Forest's Mitch Griffis leads the way with six.
Put this together, and Plummer is tied for the 10th-most "turnover worthy plays" amongst Power Five quarterbacks with 10, according to Pro Football Focus. While he has done plenty of good things this season, with the second half of the season being much more difficult than the first, he can't continue to make decisions that will put Louisville behind the eight ball.
The Front Seven Needs to Generate a More Consistant Pass Rush
Despite losing a lot of production from last year's defense, there were still some hopes that Louisville's front seven could be serviceable heading in this season. While the linebacking corps certainly had some question marks, many were optimistic regarding the defensive line considering the starting talent and perceived depth it had.
So far, this unit has done a good job as it pertains to bottling up the run, as their 97.1 rushing yards allowed per game comes in at 14th in the FBS and third in the ACC. But when it comes to getting after the quarterback, this unit has been very hit-or-miss.
Over the first four games of the season, Louisville's current defense had the same issue that the 2021 defense did: they were doing a solid job at the line of scrimmage, but their pressure generated kept coming up just short of their intended backfield target. In fact, they had only seven sacks and 16 tackles for loss in this stretch.
Against NC State and Notre Dame, it seemed like the front seven finally was hitting their stride. In this two-game stretch alone, the Cardinals had six sacks and 16 tackles for loss. Then against a Pitt offensive line that had been struggling all year and was decimated by injuries, Louisville was surprisingly getting stonewalled at the line of scrimmage and registered only one sack and four tackles for loss.
Ashton Gillotte (8.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks) has been a force, as has Mason Reiger (3.0 sacks) since he returned from injury, but most every one else on the defensive line has been average or inconsistent when going after the quarterback. Those two, plus Stephen Herron and Jeff Clark, are the only Louisville defenders with a PFF pass rush grade over 66 (60 is average)
As well as Louisville's secondary has performed up to this season, there have been multiple instances where they have given up plays simply because the quarterback had too much time to find an open man. Going forward with some prolific offenses coming up, Louisville has to play consistant complimentary defense if they are to finish strong.
Run Blocking From The Offensive Line Has to Improve
Okay, I know what you're thinking. Yes, Louisville has done a good job running the ball up to this point in the season. Jawhar Jordan has a legitimate chance to win the Doak Walker Award, and the two running backs behind him in Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner has made impacts in their respective roles. Even Plummer has looked sneaky good when keeping the ball.
Put it all together, and Louisville has rushed for 176.3 yards per game, which comes in at 45th in the FBS and seventh in the ACC. For an offensive system that has an emphasis on passing the ball, it's a pretty good showing from their ball carriers.
However, while the offensive line has done a fantastic job in pass protection, Louisville's success running the ball has come in spite of a somewhat pedestrian showing when it come's to the O-line's run blocking. According to PFF, the Cardinals have a run blocking grade of just 63.0, which comes in at 60th in the FBS and 39th out of the 68 teams in the Power Five.
It's not just one lineman, either. Out of the six offensive linemen in Louisville's rotation right now, four of them have run block grades between 58.0 and 62.1 (remember, 60 is average). Michael Gonzalez and Bryan Hudson have the best grades here, but even those are at 64.4 and 66.8, respectively.
It has had a direct effect in recent games, too. Louisville could only rush 20 yards at NC State, and 71 at Pitt. In the latter game, the O-line's inability to consistently open up holes for the running backs could have been a reasoning as to why Jeff Brohm abandoned the run game in the second half despite playing in a rain storm.
Is this the most pressing matter facing Louisville? No. In fact, the O-line's pass blocking has been so good that it earned them a spot on the Joe Moore Award Midseason Honor Roll. But it's absolutely something that needs to be worked on with physical and talented defensive lines still on the schedule.
(Photo of Louisville Players: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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