Could The Big 12 Be In Louisville's Future?

A potential departure from the ACC could be on the table for the Cardinals in the not-so-distant future.

Mar 24, 2023; Seattle, WA, USA; Louisville Cardinals mascot Louie gestures against the Ole Miss Rebels in the first half at Climate Pledge Arena. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Over the last few years, the gears of conference realignment have been furiously turning.

Texas and Oklahoma are now in the SEC. USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington left for the Big Ten. Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado bolted for the Big 12. Stanford, Cal and SMU joined the ACC. The Pac-12 is now just two members. Many other dominoes have fallen as well, impacting every conference in the FBS, and well as a plethora of FCS and non-D1 conferences.

Unlike the previous round of conference realignment during the early 2010's, Louisville has managed to stay put, and are set to enter their 11th season in the Atlantic Coast Conference this upcoming season.

But could the 2024-25 athletics year be the Cardinals' last in the ACC?

Ever since this round of realignment got started, there has been plenty of local speculation regarding if Louisville could get involved. In recent months, the speculation has specifically involved the Big 12.

However, now this speculation appears to have some behind-the-scenes legs to it.

According to 247Sports' Jason Scheer, who was out in front of USC and UCLA's decision to move to the Big Ten back in 2022, there is "internal belief" within the Big 12 that both Florida State and Clemson are "likely to join the conference within the next year or so."

So how does this involve Louisville? Well, the two aforementioned schools might not be the only ones that the Big 12 is targeting.

On a recent interview with 93.9 The Ville, Scheer says that Louisville and Miami are the "next two up" behind FSU and Clemson in regards to schools the Big 12 could go after.

"From what I understand, Miami and Louisville, Florida State and Clemson would be the four that I would keep a close eye on," Scheer said.

Scheer's report certainly appears to fit in line with Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark's line of thinking. During the Big 12's Media Day earlier this month, Yormark said that while the conference is not actively pursuing expansion, they are "open for business."

"I've said from day one, we are open for business," he said. "I guess you could say that we are open for business now more than ever before."

That all being said, a potential move to the Big 12 for Louisville is likely not - at least as of this moment - a potentially imminent development. In fact, during his interview with 93.9 The Ville, Scheer says that any school bolting from the ACC hinges entirely on FSU and Clemson's lawsuits vs. the ACC.

"If (FSU and Clemson) can't find a way out of the ACC without paying an insane amount of money, we're all just sitting still," he said. "Unless there's some insane buyout they're gonna pay, but I don't know if that's likely. There has to be an exit for Florida State and Clemson out of the ACC. If there's no exit, we're probably not talking about this for a while."

Both the Seminoles and Tigers are suing the league, challenging their grant of rights media deal and the penalties for breaking it. The GoR deal with ESPN runs through 2036, with each of the schools getting an equal share of the conference's revenue.

The problem is that the ACC's GoR payouts pale in comparison to what the SEC and Big Ten give their member schools in their respective media deals. Additionally, the ACC has in place exorbitant monetary penalties for schools who chose to break the GoR before 2036 and leave the conference. The crux of the lawsuits are that said penalties, which FSU estimated could be up to $572 million, and unenforceable.

Though if the ACC loses these lawsuits and the two schools are able to walk away without paying a hefty penalty, don't expect the Big Ten or SEC to come calling - at for Florida State. Action Network's Brett McMurphy recently reported that the Big Ten and SEC are unlikely to add the 'Noles if they do leave the ACC, with sources from both conferences going so far as tell McMurphy that FSU has shown “it’s not a good partner" due to how public they have been in regards to their dissatisfaction with the ACC.

The lawsuits from both FSU and Clemson - as well as subsequent countersuits from the ACC - don't appear to have any sort of timetable to them, but there is one date to keep an eye on. The two schools have until Aug. 15 to announce their intentions to leave the conference following the upcoming 2024-25 athletics season.

Long story short, Louisville - for the time being - does not appear to be in a position to immediately leave the ACC for the Big 12. There is a lot that needs to happen in a very short window of time, and UofL athletic director Josh Heird has been happy with Louisville's standing within the ACC.

But, as they say, never say never. While it is highly unlikely that Louisville could make a move to the Big 12 starting in 2025-26, depending on the timing and results with the FSU/Clemson vs. ACC lawsuits, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Cardinals could be in a different conference sometime in the next 3-5 years.

(Photo of Louie: Kirby Lee - USA TODAY Sports)

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