How the Final Weekend Affects Louisville's ACC Tournament Hopes

The Cardinals are on the outside looking in, but all hope is not lost.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Normally during this time of year, we've become accustomed to tracking what teams could be coming to Jim Patterson Stadium for an NCAA Tournament regional hosted by the Louisville baseball program, or at the very least, speculating what regional the Cardinals could be going to.

However, the 2023 season has been anything but a normal one for Louisville. Not only are they a fringe bubble team right now with their 30-22 overall record, but there's a very real chance they might not even make it to the ACC Tournament. Sporting a 9-18 record in ACC play, they currently sit at 13th in the league's overall standings, and 12 teams go to Durham for a shot at the conference crown.

That being said, all hope is not lost. Only eight spots in the ACC Tournament have been clinched heading into the final weekend of the regular season, and the Cardinals are not yet mathematically eliminated. Five teams, including Louisville, are fighting for the final four spots in the field. The only team who has been officially eliminated is Florida State.

With there still some hope left that Louisville could make the ACC Tournament and fire off a run to punch an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, let's take a look at how the final regular season weekend affects their chances at going to Durham.

First, here's a glance at the bottom of the standings. With there having been an uneven amount of games played due to various weather cancellations throughout the season, the standings are sorted by win percentage

• 9. Georgia Tech: 12-15 (.444)
• 10. Virginia Tech: 11-15 (.423)
• 11. Pitt: 10-15 (.400)
• 12. NC State: 10-16 (.385)
• 13. Louisville: 9-18 (.333)
• 14. Florida State: 7-20 (.259)

The way that the schedule ends across the ACC is very favorable to Louisville. The Cardinals actually cap off the regular season by hosting the Seminoles, who have already seen their 44-year postseason streak snapped, and are playing even worse baseball than Louisville has at any point of 2023. Additionally, Pitt and NC State - the two teams in front of Louisville in the standings - play each other in Raleigh. Virginia Tech travels to No. 1 overall Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech hosts No. 13 Virginia.

Now let's actually breakdown how results across the ACC will impact Louisville's place in the standings, barring any cancellations of games. Let's get the big one out of the way first: if the Cardinals sweep Florida State, they are in no matter what happens elsewhere. That would give them a .400 win percentage, which would leapfrog them over either Pitt or NC State regardless of how that series shakes out.

Speaking of, let's go to that Panthers-Wolfpack series and break down the four different possibilities there in regards to final league win percentage: 

If Pitt wins 3-0

• Pitt: 13-15 (.464)
• NC State: 10-19 (.349)

If Pitt wins 2-1

• Pitt: 12-16 (.429)
• NC State: 11-18 (.379)

If NC State wins 2-1

• NC State: 12-16 (.429)
• Pitt: 11-17 (.393)

If NC State wins 3-0

• NC State: 13-16 (.448)
• Pitt: 10-18 (.357)

I mention this because, if Louisville wins their series against FSU but fails to pull off a sweep, that would give them a .367 final ACC win percentage. In that case, they could still get into the ACC Tournament, but the winner of the Pitt-NC State series has to pull off a sweep. A 2-1 series win there would bounce the Cards if they don't take all three games from the 'Noles.

You might be thinking where Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech come into play here. Truth be told, these two teams don't have a huge impact on Louisville as it pertains to them getting into the ACC Tournament or not, and mainly impact the Cardinals' seed. That is because all the Yellow Jackets have to do is win one more game and they're in, and Hokies just have to not get swept and they're in.

But, considering both play top-15 teams, there is a chance they could both get swept and give Louisville a seed higher than No. 12. This would be great news for the Cardinals considering Wake Forest has already clinched the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, and getting the 12th seed would put them in their pool.

GT and VT's impact on Louisville's seed would only come if they are swept themselves, and the Cardinals do in fact sweep FSU. Georgia Tech would fall to a .400 win percentage if Virginia sweeps them, and Louisville hold a tiebreaker over the Jackets after beating them in a series earlier in the season. Due to an uneven amount of games played, Virginia Tech would fall to a .379 win percentage if Wake Forest sweeps them, which would be lower than Louisville's following a potential FSU sweep.

Here is the last few paragraphs in simpler terms: if Louisville sweeps FSU, and the Pitt/NC State series is a sweep, the Cardinals will take the No. 11 seed if either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech are swept. If both GT and VT are swept, they could get the No. 10 seed.

But it all boils down to this: sweep Florida State, and Louisville is in the ACC Tournament, period. Win the series 2-1, and the Cardinals will need help from either Pitt and NC State.

Game one of the Pitt-NC State series starts on Thursday, May 18 at 6:00 p.m. EST, while game one of the Louisville-FSU series starts an hour later.

(Photo via Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)

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