Will Louisville Make The NCAA Tournament?

The Cardinals find themselves in an unfamiliar place ahead of Selection Monday: on the bubble. Have they done enough to continue their season?

(Photo of Dan McDonnell: Steven Branscombe - USA TODAY Sports)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - With college baseball's conference championship week currently in full swing, there are only a few days left until Selection Monday, where the NCAA Tournament field is revealed.

For Louisville, this is typically a week filled with very little drama. In Dan McDonnell's tenure as the head coach of the Cardinals, they have only missed the tournament once since his hiring in 2007, and have hosted a regional nine times. At the very least, there is some debate on who they will face, and if they will have home field advantage.

However, this year has not been a typical year for Louisville baseball. The offense has been anything but consistent, and the pitching staff has been absolutely decimated by injuries, and the bottom fell out during the last month of the regular season.

The Cardinals lost 10 of their final 14 games heading into the ACC Tournament, going from regional hosting lock to bubble team extremely fast. After going 1-1 in pool play, culminating in getting bounced from Charlotte, N.C. thanks to an extra innings heartbreaker to Georgia Tech, and Louisville has a long wait until Monday.

The program has done their part, and now their fate is in the hands of the selection committee. The question is, have they done enough to snag an at-large bid? Or have they done too much damage and seen their bubble burst? Well, you can make a case for both sides.

Louisville finished the year at 28-22 overall and an even 16-16 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. While neither record seems very noteworthy, the conference record actually is. Since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams, over 50% of the ACC teams who go at least .500 in conference play make the Big Dance.

There are a few noteworthy victories attributing to the conference record, too. Their series split with Notre Dame; series wins over FSU, Virginia, and Duke; and series sweep over NC State all are regarded as Quadrant 1 wins. Not to mention, they have a pair of non-conference Q1 wins over Vanderbilt and USC Upstate.

But, the Cards also have some ugly blemishes on their resume. They were swept by Clemson, who is not a tournament team, and have individual losses to Cincinnati, Morehead State, EKU and Western Illinois. Their road record is also far from impressive, as they went 8-12 away from Jim Patterson Stadium (compared to 19-9 at home).

The biggest detractor to their tourney chances undoubtedly comes from their RPI ranking, as it comes in at 74th following their loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament. For context, the lowest RPI to make the tournament in 2019 was 59th, held by TCU.

However, their RPI may not be a killing blow. The COVID-19 pandemic led to uneven scheduling across the college baseball landscape, with many teams not only having their initial amount of games limited, but also having them wiped out completely because of the virus. As a result, RPI is not as reliable this season as it normally is.

For example: Fairfield, who has the No. 149 SOS, has the No. 2 RPI in the country, and were at No. 1 for a chunk of the season. Why? They didn't play a single non-conference game all season, as all of their games came in MAAC play.

Louisville finds themselves in a somewhat similar situation, as the ACC opted to play more games in league play, and shorten the non-conference schedule. That, among other reasons, could be a reason the selection committee uses caution when using RPI as a reference.

Even college baseball experts are torn on whether or not Louisville is in. In their most recent tournament projections, Baseball America had them among the 'Last Four In', and D1Baseball had them as the last team out (sound familiar?).

At the end of the day, a case can be made to either exclude or include the Cardinals. One thing is for sure though: it will be a nervous wait for the Selection Show.

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