Behind Enemy Lines: Insider Analysis on the Florida Gators
Saturday’s primetime matchup against the Florida Gators has all the makings of being an instant classic. With Brian Kelly facing off against Billy Napier in their first-ever matchup, it’ll be a statement game for both of their programs.
We caught up with All Gators publisher Zach Goodall and asked a few questions about the showdown in Gainesville.
LSU Country: Anthony Richardson's numbers don't jump off the page, but he utilizes his weapons well. How can he become more effective Saturday night against an LSU secondary that has been rather inconsistent?
Zach Goodall: That's the thing, Richardson has been inconsistent against inconsistent secondaries. He's been an enigma of a quarterback this season that, even in his underwhelming games, will thrill you, and we both understand how dynamic can be in his good games.
Richardson has passed his best via play action this season, as seen by his 64.7 completion percentage, 13.4 yards per attempt, four touchdowns and two interceptions on 61 such dropbacks per Pro Football Focus. Compare that to his completion percentage of 49.5 yards per attempt of 5.3, one touchdown and five picks on traditional dropbacks, and it becomes immensely clear where he is both most comfortable and efficient.
Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson preparing his offense pre-snap in their matchup against Missouri on Oct. 8.
So, the answer seems simple, especially against a threatening Tigers' defensive front: Get Richardson on the move to throw with play-action concepts. Florida's rushing attack has proven to be dynamic this year, and if the backs can get going early on, play-action concepts will be easier to utilize.
LSU Country: Louisiana transfer Montrell Johnson has made a seamless transition to the SEC. How can he see success against an LSU defensive line that has been efficient this year?
Zach Goodall: I think, understanding the talent and beef that makes up the Tigers' defensive line, the Gators will need to rely on Johnson in this game. He's their best bruising back at 5-foot-11, 218 pounds, and is a missed tackle waiting to happen whether it's via his power or elusiveness. He ranks fifth in the nation in yards per carry among qualifying rushers (min. 6.25 attempts per team's games played).
That being said, UF routinely splits its rushing attack between four players, including Johnson, Richardson, freshman Trevor Etienne (a fellow Boot State product and the nation's No. 17 rusher in yards per attempt) and veteran Nay'Quan Wright. While I think it would be in UF's best interest to lean on Johnson, with Etienne and Richardson as the complementary pieces, I would imagine we'll continue to see a pretty thorough split of touches.
Florida Gators running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Neyland Stadium.
LSU Country: Is there any discussion about Billy Napier facing off against two of his former players in Mekhi Garner and Kyren Lacy?
Zach Goodall: There hasn't been much conversation regarding Napier facing those players as much as, at least in his Monday press conference, the topic of his potential previous interest in LSU's head coaching vacancy. He provided the type of answer we've grown used to when these types of questions are asked, but nonetheless assured UF fans that he believes he made the right choice in taking the Florida job.
"I don't know that's something you talk publicly about. I think we're all well aware of chaotic times in college football when you get to November, December, January," Napier said. "I'll tell you one thing. I'm grateful for the opportunity I was given here. For the administration here, for [athletic director] Scott [Stricklin] and all the people that contributed to that decision to have faith and confidence, do their homework on me, give me an opportunity to lead here. I can't imagine being at a much better place. So we were very patient the last few years. This path was right. That's what I would say. There's not a day that I woke up and said am I at the right place or not? I've got conviction about that."
Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier out onto the field before the game between the Florida Gators and Eastern Washington Eagles at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Sunday, October 2, 2022.
LSU Country: Which LSU player is Florida most concerned about? Any under the radar guys?
Zach Goodall: It should be Jayden Daniels. I think, aside from the strong safety position, Florida's secondary is capable enough to prevent Daniels from moving the ball through the air as he's been for the most part an underneath passer. But his mobility could legitimately win LSU the game — Cameron Rising's for Utah in Week 1 and Gerry Bohanon's for USF in Week 3 put both teams in position to beat the Gators, and Hendon Hooker's certainly helped Tennessee pull off its victory over UF in Week 4. Rushing quarterbacks have given the Gators problems all season, and Daniels is the most dynamic rushing quarterback they'll have faced to date.
LSU Country: Is this a statement game for Florida? There was tremendous chatter surrounding Billy Napier and the LSU job opening before ultimately heading to Florida. Has anything been said about how meaningful this game is for both programs that are led by coaches in their first year with the program?
Zach Goodall: Certainly. It would be Florida's second SEC win in its last eight tries, and for fans, it would be that much sweeter to kick off an in-conference winning streak with a victory over a heated rival like LSU. I think people have come to accept this is a rebuilding year for Florida, but even under those circumstances, losses to the Tigers tend to sting more than others.
Florida Gators running back Trevor Etienne (7) runs with the ball during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 8, 2022.
LSU Country: What do you predict this game to look like?
Zach Goodall: I think Florida is going to squeak out a very close victory as a result of Napier's aggression as a play-caller in some way, shape or form. In my official prediction, I have UF winning by two points, maybe suggesting a two-point conversion that LSU doesn't match seals the win?
The best matchup to watch, in my opinion, will be in the trenches, between what's been one of the better offensive lines in the nation that Florida possesses and an LSU defensive line that is stacked with talent from top to bottom.
