How Does ESPN's Football Power Index Think LSU Will Fare in 2020 Regular Season?

Tigers favored in most of their games in 2020 according to ESPN analytics metric

LSU's 2020 season could, understandably, go a number of different ways. That's what happens when a team is fresh off of a national championship run that lost many key pieces to that historic title. 

The Tigers were forced to shake up key components of the staff with the departures of defensive coordinator Dave Aranda and passing game coordinator Joe Brady. With Bo Pelini returning to Baton Rouge as a championship defensive coordinator for the Tigers, so does the 4-3, a defense that coach Ed Orgeron wanted to implement because he feels it can play to LSU's strength on the defensive line.

Scott Linehan enters the fold on offense where he and offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger hope to continue the success of the spread with Myles Brennan under center. Linehan has coached Hall of Fame worthy talents Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson and with the plethora of weapons the Tigers have at their disposal, should continue to help in the development of Ja'Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall and tight end Arik GIlbert.

All of this change has of course been smack dab in the middle of a global pandemic that is currently in the midst of a spike, leaving some In doubt as to what a season will look like.

But as of now, the show will go on as scheduled which means projections of how the purple and gold will fare in 2020 are starting to heat up with the season now two months away. Recently, ESPN updated its "Football Power Index" to try and adequately predict the Tigers 2020 season. First, what is the goal of the ESPN FPI?

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes,” ESPN described.

Based off the data gathered from past seasons, the FPI has LSU entering the 2020 season as the No. 6 ranked team. The Tigers are given a 24.7% chance to win the SEC West, a 13.9% chance to win the SEC and a 23.7% chance to make it back to the College Football Playoffs.

But how does the FPI think the Tigers will finish the regular season? It's first notable to point out that the FPI isn't the strongest metric to use in-season, the best example of this being LSU finishing fourth in FPI after winning the national championship and going 15-0 in 2019.

However, as a preseason indicator, it does give an interesting layout of how each team could finish. The FPI has the Tigers win-loss projections at 9.6-2.6, indicating a 9-3 or 10-2 season is the most likely result for the program this season.

That's pretty much where most pundits view this team going into 2020 as repeating the magic of last year with the level of talent loss and locker room leadership is hard to argue. LSU enters most of the games this season as either heavy or slight favorites, with only one matchup where the Tigers aren't favored. 

Here's how LSU's 2020 projections are currently laid out:

Sept. 5 vs UTSA : 99.3% 

Sept 12 vs Texas : 70% 

Sept 19 vs Rice: 97.6% 

Sept 26 vs Ole Miss: 91.7% 

Oct 3 vs Nicholls : 99.6% 

Oct 10 @Florida : 54.4% 

Oct 17 @Arkansas : 91.4% 

Oct 24 vs Mississippi State : 96.4% 

Nov 7 vs Alabama : 42.4% 

Nov 14 vs South Carolina : 92% 

Nov 21 @Auburn : 50.3% 

Nov 28 @Texas A&M: 62.5%

The Tigers being favored so heavily against the Longhorns is a little surprising as is being favored slightly on the road at Florida. The game against Texas, like last year, will tell us a lot about the offense and give more of a gauge on how the 2020 season will go for the purple and gold.

The same can be said for the road outing in Gainesville, which along with Auburn, will unquestionably be LSU's most daunting road game of the season. Dan Mullen led teams have always given the Tigers a fight and with a veteran quarterback returning in Kyle Trask, it has all the makings to be a competitive outing come Oct. 10.

Being the underdogs at home against the Crimson Tide should come as no surprise as it'll take more than just one win to erase this matchup's recent history. It is important to note that Alabama will be breaking in a new quarterback of its own in Mac Jones, though freshman Bryce Young could certainly wind up winning that job.

LSU's schedule is perennially one of the most difficult in the country and that's no different this season. The early part of the schedule with home games against Texas and Ole Miss will give strong indications of how far this team can go.