Expert College Football Model Predicts Score of LSU Football vs. Alabama

What are the LSU Tigers' chances of pulling off the upset at home? A look into what the expert models are saying.

Courtesy of LSU Football.

No. 14 LSU (6-2, 3-1) enters Saturday night in Tiger Stadium looking to remain alive in the College Football Playoff race with a battle against Alabama inching closer.

All eyes will be on the Top 15 showdown in Baton Rouge with both programs looking to make a statement in the Southeastern Conference matchup.

For the Bayou Bengals, it'll be about getting the ball in their playmakers hands while diversifying the playbook to keep the Crimson Tide on their toes.

"I think we have guys like Aaron Anderson, Mason Taylor and even Kyren Lacy has been big for us on third down," Kelly said on Monday. "We've gotta be more consistent across the board and creating a little more uncertainty in terms of what we are doing. Making sure we can get the ball to the playmakers but include the screen game, misdirection and the run game to create some more uncertainty."

The predictions are flowing in for Saturday night's showdown in the Bayou State.

Here we took into the current betting odds, betting trends, what the oddsmakers are suggesting and an expert model score prediction:

The Current Betting Odds: LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

*(All odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook)*

Spread:
- LSU: (+3)
- Alabama: (-3)

Moneyline:
- LSU: (+124)
- Alabama: (-148)

Over/Under: 58.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are currently a three point favorite heading into the Week 11 clash. A line that hovered around the 1.5 point mark a week ago, Vegas continues leaning towards the Tide as the favorites on Saturday night.

The Betting Trends: Week 11 Edition

Alabama is 4-4 against the spread (50%) overall this season.

LSU is 3-5 (37.5%) against the spread in 2024.

The total went over in 6 of Alabama’s last 7 road games.

LSU is 10-4-1 against the spread in its last 15 games in November.

Alabama is 12-6 against the spread in its last 18 games on a Saturday.

The total went under in 4 of LSU’s last 5 games.

The total went over in 11 of Alabama’s last 15 games.

The total went over in 4 of LSU’s last 5 games against Alabama.

Alabama has won 5 of the last 6 games against LSU on the road.

All betting trends courtesy of College Football-HQ.

What the Oddsmakers Say:

LSU has received 55% of bets to either capture a victory outright in an upset on Saturday night against the Crimson Tide or to cover the spread in a loss by a field goal or less.

The other 45% of bets that have come in this week believe Alabama will cover the three-point spread and win by a field goal or more.

When looking into the betting spread that Vegas has predicted, it believes that the Crimson Tide will take down the Bayou Bengals by a projected score of 31 to 28 in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.

ESPN's Football Power Index Weighs In:

ESPN's Football Power Index predicts the outcome of each game on the College Football slate each week with the latest results being logged for Week 11.

Now, with this weekend's schedule inching closer, the FPI has placed an expert prediction for Saturday night in Death Valley.

The model heavily leans towards the Alabama Crimson Tide with Kalen DeBoer's club receiving a 69.8% chance to win the Southeastern Conference clash.

With this, the Tigers have received a 30.2% chance of pulling off the upset at home in a prime time matchup.

"In total, the Crimson Tide came out ahead in 13,960 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Tigers edged out Bama in the other 6,040 predictions. Alabama is projected to be 7.6 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast."

It's important to note that Brian Kelly is yet to lose a night game in Baton Rouge to this point, but ESPN's Football Power Index continues heavily leaning on the Crimson Tide to spoil his hot streak.

The Southeastern Conference Standings:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1, 5-1)
2. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2, 5-1)
3. Tennessee Volunteers (7-1, 4-1)
4. Texas Longhorns (7-1, 3-1)
5. LSU Tigers (6-2, 3-1)
6. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-3, 3-2)
7. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, 3-2)
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2, 3-2)
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4, 3-3)
10. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3, 3-3)
11. Missouri Tigers (6-2, 2-2)
12. Florida Gators (4-4, 2-3)
13. Oklahoma Sooners (5-4, 1-4)
14. Auburn Tigers (3-6, 1-5)
15. Kentucky Wildcats (3-6, 1-6)
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-7, 0-5)

No. 14 LSU will return to game action on Nov. 9 against the Alabama Crimson Tide with kickoff slated for 6:30 p.m. CT in Tiger Stadium.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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