Expert College Football Model Predicts Score of LSU Football vs. Florida Gators

Brian Kelly and the Tigers head to The Swamp in Week 12, face a Gators squad with nothing to lose.

Courtesy of LSU Football.

No. 21 LSU (6-3, 3-2) will take on the Florida Gators in The Swamp on Saturday afternoon in Gainesville with kickoff set for 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

Brian Kelly and Co. will look to bounce back after consecutive losses to both the Alabama Crimson Tide and Texas A&M.

For the Tigers, it's about getting "one-percent" each day with the program entering the final three weeks of the season.

“We have the opportunity to finish the season strong and look forward to a minimum of a 10-win season, and that’s a standard for this program,” Kelly said on Monday. “We have to play more consistent. Offense, defense and special teams. That’s what is most important. Consistency play in and play out.”

Here's a look into the game information, betting trends to know, the expert model score prediction and ESPN's Football Power Index's perspective:

The Game Information: LSU Tigers at Florida Gators

• Time: 3:30 PM ET
• Date: Saturday, Nov. 16
• Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
• TV Channel: ABC Network

The Current Betting Odds: LSU Tigers at Florida Gators

*(All odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook)*

Spread:
- LSU: (-4)
- Florida: (+4)

Moneyline:
- LSU: (-175)
- Florida: (+145)

Over/Under: 55

The LSU Tigers are currently a four-point favorite heading into the Week 12 clash. A line that hovered around the five-point mark a week ago, Vegas continues leaning towards the Tigers as the favorites on Saturday night.

The Betting Trends:

LSU is 3-6 against the spread (33.3%) overall so far this season.

Florida is 5-4 (55.6%) against the spread in 2024.

LSU is 1-2 against the spread on the road.

Florida is 2-3 against the spread at home.

LSU is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games.

Florida is 2-6 against the spread in its last 8 games at home.

LSU is 2-4 against the spread in its last 6 road games.

Florida is 0-4-1 against the spread in its last 5 games against LSU.

The total went over in 10 of LSU’s last 11 road games.

The total went over in 6 of Florida’s last 9 home games.

LSU is 2-5 against the spread in its last 7 games as the favorite.

Florida is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 games on a Saturday.

(All Betting Trends According to CFB-HQ)

The Expert Model: SP+ Chimes in on the Matchup

The expert SP+ model predicts that the LSU Tigers will defeat the Florida Gators by a projected score of 33 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.1 points in the process.

The expert model gives LSU a 65% chance of an outright victory over the Gators in The Swamp.

What is the SP+ Model?

According to CFB-HQ, the SP+ model is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

This season, SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread while attaining a 52.6 win percentage. The model went 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend in Week 11.

ESPN's Football Power Index Weighs in on Week 12 Result:

LSU Tigers at Florida Gators: 57% Chance

The Bayou Bengals will enter Saturday night in Gainesville with a 57% chance at walking away with a victory, according to ESPN's FPI.

Kelly and Co. will hop on a flight later this week to the Sunshine State for another Southeastern Conference road game where Billy Napier and the Gators will be waiting.

For Florida, it's a program that has nothing to lose down the stretch this season after announcing that Napier will return in 2025.

But the key factor here will be Gators signal-caller DJ Lagway and his status ahead of kickoff as he nurses a hamstring injury.

Nonetheless, ESPN's FPI gives LSU a 57% chance to come out with a win in Week 12 in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

No. 21 LSU will square off against the Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon in Gainesville with kickoff slated for 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

More LSU News:

The Updated AP Top 25 Poll: Where LSU Football Stands After Week 11

LSU Dishes Out Offer to No. 1 Quarterback in America

Nick Saban Calls LSU Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier a "Sleeper" Ahead of 2024 Season

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