LSU Football vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: What the Experts Predict to Happen in Week 11

Brian Kelly and Co. enter Saturday night in Death Valley as underdogs, looking to pull off the upset at home.

Courtesy of LSU Football.

No. 14 LSU (6-2, 3-1) will welcome the Alabama Crimson Tide to Tiger Stadium on Saturday night with both programs looking to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

It'll be a Top 15 matchup in Baton Rouge with significant postseason implications on the line.

“The loser of this game says goodbye, adios to the season,” SEC Network's Paul Finebaum told 'SportsCenter.' “Not in the literal sense, but in terms of the CFP [College Football Playoff]."

“The loser will have three losses. There’s no way to get back in. There will be an SEC Championship Game. There really won’t be any hope. There’re too many schools competing for those at-large bids.”

What are the latest predictions? Can the Tigers pull off the upset at home?

The current buzz on the Top 15 Southeastern Conference clash in Death Valley:

The Game Information: LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Date: Saturday, Nov. 9
• Venue: Tiger Stadium
• TV Channel: ABC Network

The Current Betting Odds: LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

*(All odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook)*

Spread:
- LSU: (+3)
- Alabama: (-3)

Moneyline:
- LSU: (+120)
- Alabama: (-142)

Over/Under: 58

The Alabama Crimson Tide are currently three-point favorites heading into the Week 11 clash. A line that hovered around the 1.5 point mark a week ago, Vegas continues leaning towards the Tide as the favorites on Saturday night.

What the Oddsmakers Say:

LSU has received 55% of bets to either capture a victory outright in an upset on Saturday night against the Crimson Tide or to cover the spread in a loss by a field goal or less.

The other 45% of bets that have come in this week believe Alabama will cover the three-point spread and win by a field goal or more.

When looking into the betting spread that Vegas has predicted, it believes that the Crimson Tide will take down the Bayou Bengals by a projected score of 31 to 28 in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.

ESPN's Football Power Index Weighs In:

ESPN's Football Power Index predicts the outcome of each game on the College Football slate each week with the latest results being logged for Week 11.

Now, with this weekend's schedule inching closer, the FPI has placed an expert prediction for Saturday night in Death Valley.

The model heavily leans towards the Alabama Crimson Tide with Kalen DeBoer's club receiving a 69.8% chance to win the Southeastern Conference clash.

With this, the Tigers have received a 30.2% chance of pulling off the upset at home in a prime time matchup.

"In total, the Crimson Tide came out ahead in 13,960 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Tigers edged out Bama in the other 6,040 predictions. Alabama is projected to be 7.6 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast."

It's important to note that Brian Kelly is yet to lose a night game in Baton Rouge to this point, but ESPN's Football Power Index continues heavily leaning on the Crimson Tide to spoil his hot streak.

The Analysts' Takes:

The CBS Analysts' Picks: LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Aaron Taylor: Alabama

“I like Alabama in this game a little bit more,” said Taylor. “They’re coming off their best-rushing game of the season," Taylor said.

A part of his lack of faith in the Bayou Bengals is largely in part of LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier's inefficiency against Texas A&M in the second half.

“It’s hard for me to get Nussmeier’s play in that last game (vs. Texas A&M) out of my mind.”

Rick Neuheisel: Alabama

Neuheisel agreed with Taylor's thoughts on the inefficient play of Nussmeier; pairing it with LSU's lack of rushing attack through eight games of the 2024 season.

“When you factor in that LSU cannot run the football, they are last in the SEC in running the football, and that puts extra pressure on Garrett Nussmeier.”

Randy Cross and Brian Jones: LSU

The pair of CBS analysts have logged predictions for the LSU Tigers to enter Death Valley as underdogs and capture a victory over the Crimson Tide.

LSU head coach Brian Kelly is 13-0 in night games in Tiger Stadium. Now, he'll put his unbeaten streak to the test against Jalen Milroe and the Tide.

Fox Sports' Joel Klatt Chimes In:

Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt has logged his prediction for Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

Alabama remains a 2.5 point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with Klatt also favoring the Crimson Tide.

“Remember, ‘Bama has the win over Georgia. And in this case, I would have them winning, at night, at LSU. So, they’re in. They’re absolutely in," Klatt said of Alabama's College Football Playoff chances.

The Crimson Tide, like LSU, will be idle in Week 10 before next Saturday's clash, but will certainly have all the momentum heading into Nov. 9.

After a 34-0 victory in their last matchup versus Missouri, Alabama is clicking on all cylinders heading into next weekend.

“That was a big bounce-back win for Alabama on Saturday, even if it was against a Missouri team that has been overrated since the beginning of the season. Alabama’s defense played incredibly well after a few weeks of underwhelming play," Klatt said.

"I’m not sure how much we should take from that game because I don’t think Missouri is particularly good. But when you win 34-0 against an SEC opponent, it should mean something.”

No. 14 LSU and No. 11 Alabama will kickoff at 6: 30 p.m. CT on ABC in a battle to remain alive in the College Football Playoff race.

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