LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Football: Expert College Football Model Score Prediction

Brian Kelly and Co. enter Saturday night as the favorites, hit the road to Fayetteville for a critical SEC showdown.

Courtesy of LSU Football.

No. 8 LSU heads to Fayetteville this weekend for another SEC showdown against the Arkansas Razorbacks with the chance to carry their momentum from a Week 7 victory.

Brian Kelly and Co. battled back after facing adversity early against the Ole Miss Rebels last Saturday, and after capturing the win, it's on to Arkansas week.

Heading into Week 8, it'll be about continuing to diversify the playbook in order to grow the rushing attack.

Kelly alluded to the fact that the offense has spent significant time working on run schemes and how they can improve this weekend in Fayetteville.

"We're just spending more practice time on it, because it's an area that needs to continue to improve," Kelly said. "The past few weeks, we have spent more preparation time for inside, internal nine-on-seven run. Because we have to get better at the timing elements. We have to get better at the run recognition that is so crucial to our overall effective and efficient running game."

What's the latest buzz surrounding Saturday night in Arkansas? What are the expert models predicting the score to be?

The Game Information: LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

When: Saturday, Oct. 19
Where: Fayetteville, Ark.
Time: 6:00 p.m. CT
Channel: ESPN Network

The Current Betting Lines:

*(All odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook)*

Spread:
- LSU: (-2)
- Arkansas: (+2)

Moneyline:
- LSU: (-122)
- Arkansas: (+102)

Over/Under: 56

The Betting Trends: Week 8 Edition

- LSU is 2-4 against the spread (33.3%) overall this season.
- Arkansas is 5-1 (83.3%) against the spread.
- The total has gone over in 15 of LSU’s last 20 games.
- LSU is 4-12-1 against the spread in its last 17 games against Arkansas.
- The total went under in 6 of Razorbacks' last 7 games at home against LSU.
- LSU is 1-4 against the spread as a 3-point or greater favorite this season.
- Arkansas is 3-0 against the spread as 3-point or greater underdog in 2024.

The Expert College Football Model Prediction

The SP+ model predicts No. 8 LSU will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 32 to 27. It also believes LSU will win the game by an expected 4.3 points.

The model also gives the Tigers a 61% chance of outright victory while in Fayetteville.

The SP+ Model: "A tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread during the 2024 season with a 51.9 win percentage. Last weekend, the SP+ model went 26-26 (50%) with numerous upset victories.

Computer Prediction

What does the CFB-HQ Computer Prediction believe will happen? LSU is projected to win on Saturday night in 54.1% of the computer’s most recent simulations of the SEC showdown in Fayetteville.

It isn't as high of a percentage as some would like with the Arkansas Razorbacks earning the remaining 45.9 percent of sims.

"LSU is projected to be 1.6 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast."

More LSU News:

Instant Takeaways: No. 13 LSU Stuns No. 9 Ole Miss in 29-26 SEC Thriller

LSU Dishes Out Offer to No. 1 Quarterback in America

Nick Saban Calls LSU Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier a "Sleeper" Ahead of 2024 Season

Join the Community:

Follow Zack Nagy on Twitter: @znagy20 and LSU Tigers On SI: @LSUTigersSI for all coverage surrounding the LSU program.