Tiger Predictions: LSU Survives Another Close Battle With Auburn In High Scoring Game

Finley to make first start on the road, defense needs to show improvement in gap assignments

LSU-Auburn is a matchup that typically is predicated on lower scores but always comes down to the final few minutes. Over the last four years, the games have been decided by a combined 13 points.

But this season, both clubs have struggled on the defensive end of the field and bring in more than capable offenses. It will be a back and forth we haven't seen in many years, but coach Ed Orgeron wouldn’t expect anything less because that's just how this series goes.

"We had an excellent week of preparation, our guys are ready to go, this is gonna be a tough football game," Orgeron said Thursday. "It always is with Auburn and we're expecting a big time battle. It may come down to the last play, it may not, whatever it takes it's gonna be a very challenging game for us and we're ready."

Score Prediction: LSU 34, Auburn 31

This series has had a fair number of decisive wins but that hasn’t been the case when Ed Orgeron squares off with Gus Malzahn. 

Don’t expect that to change much on Saturday either. Both teams are in a similar boat with Auburn sitting at 3-2 and LSU at 2-2. This is a critical game for both programs to stay in the race in the SEC West but both enter the contest with some newfound confidence after an LSU win over South Carolina and an Auburn win over Ole Miss. 

For the purple and gold, freshman TJ Finley will earn his second career start and first on the road after an extremely impressive and efficient evening against the Gamecocks, tossing for 265 yards and three total touchdowns. 

"TJ has got a cannon for an arm, he escaped some pressure which we thought he could," Orgeron said. "But his presence on the field, that's what I was most impressed with. He can improve on some decision makings but that's gonna come with maturity."

It's difficult to expect such efficiency for a second straight week from the freshman, particularly on the road, but that poise he showed in his first start should leave most confident he can get the job done. Auburn is surrendering 220 yards per game, which is top 40 in the country and the secondary is fresh off allowing Ole Miss to throw for 161 yards after the Rebels came into the matchup 335 yards per game passing.

Establishing the run with John Emery and Tyrion Davis-Price will be all the more important. Auburn is allowing 180 yards per game on the ground so the sophomore running backs could be in for another big outing after combining for 229 yards on the ground against South Carolina.

Even Finley proved to be mobile last weekend, though his preference will always be to get the ball out to his myriad of weapons including Terrace Marshall, Arik Gilbert, Kayshon Boutte and Jaray Jenkins. Marshall hasn't caught any less than two touchdowns in any game this season so a repeat performance is certainly likely. Which weapon steps up opposite Marshall is the big question. Gilbert, Jenkins, Jontre Kirklin and Boutte have all had their moments this season.

The real trouble will come on the defensive end as Auburn runs a very similar style offense to Missouri, a team that gave LSU fits just a few short weeks ago. Even more so than Missouri, Auburn puts an emphasis on the running attack, headlined by quarterback Bo Nix and running back Tank Bigsby. 

Auburn is No. 4 in the conference in rushing yards per game (164.4) and 4.67 yards per rush. Malzahn's offensive style is to throw off opposing defenses through misdirection, getting to the outside and presnap movement.

"It's a lot similar play style, Auburn does a lot of belly zone read and they like to lean on the run game a lot more," linebacker Jabril Cox said. "They have a couple of good receivers on the outside. But we all know it's a copy cat league so they're going to try and pull some things from last week that we missed on so we have to prepare for that."

The LSU defense made strides last week but it was against a rather bland offensive scheme. This week will be a true test to see if there's been some improvement in filling the right gaps and eliminating the explosive plays. 

What has been a common trend in this series' history is a defensive turnover or special teams play swinging the momentum of the game. Back in 2017, DJ Chark swung the momentum with a 75-yard punt return just before the half. The next year of course was Cole Tracy's infamous field goal. 

LSU saw its first kickoff return in Death Valley since 1981 with Trey Palmer and Derek Stingley is a threat on punt returns, though he hasn't been able get much churning thus far. The purple and gold are also +6 in turnover margin this season. Don't be surprised to see a game altering play on special teams or a critical turnover be the ultimate determining factor in Saturday's game.