Statistics and Trends: Miami at North Carolina
The Miami Hurricanes have a big basketball game at the North Carolina Tar Heels tonight at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN.
During last season’s lone matchup between the two schools, Miami won 85-57 at the Watsco Center. This season, Miami will travel to Chapel Hill to play the one game between the two teams at the Dean Smith Center.
Heading into the contest, there have been some interesting statistics for the offense and defense for Miami. First, a look back at the prior game versus Louisville to give a closer examination of Miami’s most recent statistics.
Miami versus Louisville
*Perhaps the most valuable statistic from this past Saturday’s game was the fact that Miami assisted on 20 baskets, while Louisville only reached 12 in the same category.
*All three of Nigel Pack, Isaiah Wong, and Norchad Omier played the majority of the game versus Louisville, with 30, 35, and 32 minutes respectively. Jordan Miller also played 34 minutes, and the only starter that did not go over the 30-minute mark was Wooga Poplar with 23 minutes. Miami’s bench players only participated for 46 minutes.
*With all of the quality shooting from Louisville and Miami, there were not as many rebounding chances. The Canes won the rebounding battle by a final tally of 28-24.
*Whether Miami can slow down UNC’s big man – center Armando Bacot – is a concern. That’s especially true after Louisville’s Jae’Lyn Withers went for 18 points and five rebounds against Miami on Saturday night. Bacot has averaged 17.6 points and 11.3 points so far this season.
*With 8-20 shooting from behind the arc for 40%, Miami did well once again. The Canes also gave up 10-23 from behind the 3-point line for Louisville, however, and a similar statistic could be catastrophic against a quality North Carolina squad.
The Canes played even better during their prior game against the Blue Devils from Duke.
Miami versus Duke: Statistics and trends to remember
*The Canes held the Blue Devils to 26.3% from behind the 3-point line, while also shooting 41.2% themselves. Anything similar to that inside the Dean Smith Center tonight will likely lead to a Miami victory.
*Much like the Louisville game, Miami passed the basketball well against Duke. The Canes had 21 assists. The Blue Devils reached 16 assists in that game.
*Miami won the rebounding battle against a much taller Duke team (two players near 7-foot in the starting lineup), 38-31. Maybe more impressive, 16 of those rebounds for Miami were on the offensive end of the court.
How good has Miami been the past few seasons in ACC play? Check out this statistic:
The Miami Hurricanes are 26-10 in our last 36 ACC games, the best in the league. 🙌 pic.twitter.com/cSCegrqBDT
— Canes Men’s Basketball (@CanesHoops) February 12, 2023
Point Spread: Should the Tar Heels be favored over the Hurricanes?
Despite Miami being ranked No. 19 in last week’s poll (the new poll comes out later today), and even with an 11-4 Atlantic Coast Conference record compared to North Carolina’s 8-6 mark, the SI Sportsbook (and many similar sports books) have UNC favored by 4.5 points in tonight’s game.
Series history: North Carolina leads 26-9.
North Carolina Trends
*Bacot has scored at least 14 points during his past eight games. He’s also grabbed double-digit rebounds from seven of his last eight games.
*Before UNC’s 91-71 win over Clemson on Saturday, the Tar Heels had lost three games in a row (at Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and at Duke).
*A big reason the Tar Heels beat Clemson, and so decisively, was 3-point shooting. The UNC offense is not known as a top-notch 3-point unit but went 15-33 for 45.5%. That’s an impressive number and something to monitor during the first five to 10 minutes of tonight’s contest.
If Miami allows UNC to get off to a hot 3-point shooting start, that’s going to provide Bacot with more chances down in the paint. His 6-foot-11 and 235-pound frame has been hard enough to stop even when double teamed.
*RJ Davis and Caleb Love were a combined 10-19, 52.6%, from distance against Clemson. They will be the guards in the UNC starting lineup that Miami has to find a balance with charging out to defend while also eyeing Bacot.
*Speaking of guards, last Tuesday UNC allowed Wake Forest’s Tyree Appleby to score 35 points. Ironically, he was 0-6 from downtown. Appleby did go 23-28 from the free throw line, however. He was driving to the hoop and made UNC pay from the charity stripe. That could be critical for the Canes as Wong, Pack and every other player for Miami could look to take the basketball to the basket and get UNC in foul trouble.
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Fan Nation High school football recruiting analyst covering the state of Florida, as well as across the Southeastern United States and the state of Texas.