How High of a NCAA Tournament Seed Can Miami Receive?

Evaluating Miami’s NCAA Tournament seed options.

Any team, no matter their seeding, can get hot and win the NCAA Tournament, right?

Not really. The facts have stated otherwise. That’s been true for the Miami Hurricanes and any team that’s not a No. 1 or at least a No. 2 seed. 

By looking at Miami's run during last season's NCAA Tournament, it provided a backdrop to the reasons higher seeds have been successful.

With the first two rounds played in Greenville, S.C., 10th-seeded Miami started off with a 68-66 victory over 7th-seeded Southern California, a game that took a lot of energy to secure the “W.”

The second round was not all that much easier with a 79-61 victory over No. 2 seed Auburn, although the score may have indicated otherwise.

The Hurricanes led 33-32 at halftime, and hot shooting led to a 46-29 second half advantage in the scorebook. Still, that was a talented Tigers team that the Hurricanes knocked off, and one that required the starters and key players to exhaust a lot of energy.

Miami guard Isaiah Wong scored 21 points in that game, but played 36 minutes. Fellow guard Kameron McGusty scored 20 points, but he was on the court for an even longer time with 38 minutes played.

Eventually, Miami succumbed to Kansas in the Elite 8, losing 76-50 in a game where the Canes looked like the slower, less energetic squad.

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The No. 1 seeded Jayhawks had gone through an easier path. The game before Miami played Kansas, two days before it went against Iowa State in a contest that was highly contested with Miami leading 32-29 at halftime before eventually pulling away and winning 70-56.

Kansas, meanwhile, struggled some against Providence before winning 66-61 prior to playing Miami, but it had already destroyed Texas Southern in the opening round, 73-56, as well as beating a quality, but less talented, Creighton team 79-72 in the second round.

Kansas head coach Bill Self did not have to play his starters normal minutes against Texas Southern, and that matters as it helped with the upcoming games against Creighton, Providence and eventually Miami.

At the end of the college basketball season, tired legs often creep into the equation.

That’s why seeding has often been so important and teams truly want a No. 1 seed, or at least a No. 2 seed. That first so-called easy game (Then again, tell that to Kentucky, who lost to St. Peter’s as a #2 seed in the first round last season.) can often lead to starters resting during the latter stages of the opening NCAA Tournament contest, a subsequent blowout like the win Kansas earned over Texas Southern.

At least that’s been the history of the NCAA Tournament, considering decades of data from #1 and #2 seeds often breezing through early round games.

Well, for the Hurricanes this season, they have been moving up the rankings; that includes CBS Sports Matt Norlander’s Power Rankings:

.@MattNorlander's weekly power rankings are live.

1. @UHCougarMBK
6. @BaylorMBB
8. @MarquetteMBB
11. @CanesHoops
14. @Aztec_MBB
19. @Pitt_MBB

📈📉https://t.co/b4wgBWmw23

— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) February 16, 2023

Why does Norlander’s ranking system matter? These types of metrics are used by the NCAA Tournament committee. Assuming the above ranking of Miami being currently ranked #11 overall in the country is fairly accurate, that could lead to the Hurricanes gaining a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

That’s not the desired #1 or #2, but it’s still much better than last season’s 10th seed and subsequent difficult games to begin the NCAA Tournament. There’s still a chance for upward movement, too.

Miami has a 12-4 ACC record and has been playing well. It also has a huge matchup with Wake Forest at 2 p.m. inside the Watsco Center.

If the Hurricanes can win that home game against a quality Demon Deacons team, which has 9-6 record of their own in the ACC, that will further enhance the chances of earning at least a #3 seed.

Perhaps Miami could even possibly challenge for a #2 seed with even more prime victories down the regular season stretch and winning the ACC Tournament.

Keep in mind, the last regular season game will come on March 4 against Pittsburgh at home, a team that’s currently tied with Virginia with a 12-3 ACC mark for tops in the ACC.

If the Canes win-out, including that Pittsburgh game, there’s a shot at a No. 2 seed. Now, here’s the hard data that was mentioned at the beginning of the article about why such high seeds matter for winning it all in March Madness.

As noted in Norlander’s article, since 2017, every team that cut down the nets has had a No. 1 seed.

Digger deeper, since 2000, 16 teams that were No. 1 seeds have won it all, and an additional two more were #2 seeds that finished as champs. That’s 18 of the 22 winners (no tournament in 2020 because of COVID) coming from #1 or #2 seeds.

How head coach Jim Larranaga and his Miami squad finishes the regular season will likely directly impact their chances of being a prime contender to win it all, and the road to securing the highest possible NCAA Tournament seed continues today inside the Watsco Center against Wake Forest.

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