What Should the Betting Line for Miami vs UConn Be?
To help figure this game out, and the betting line, All Hurricanes wanted to give some insight into a recent trend that has seemingly gone unnoticed by the gambling industry.
To be clear, there have been many casinos that believe the Huskies should be favored in Saturday’s game. Fair enough. UConn was placed as a 5.5-point favorite over Miami.
Here’s why that may not be as accurate as it usually might be. No question, Vegas has made itself rich off of smart betting odds over time. That doesn’t mean it’s always right, however.
Were the odds makers incorrect? Judge for yourself.
For the rest of this article, here’s a look at Miami’s “D” and why it’s underrated, and also why the Canes should not be 5.5-point underdogs.
Players like Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong, Wooga Poplar, Norchad Omier and the Canes' Swiss-army-knife himself, Jordan Miller, among others, have been much better on defense than they've been given credit for.
Defense Wins Titles. That’s the old adage. It’s also what many betters (and Vegas) have leaned on for decades. Looking at the defensive statistics between Miami and UConn, the numbers do truly favor the Huskies.
Or do they?
Having evaluated the cumulative defensive statistics – and that’s exactly what they are, numbers across the entire season – they provided a broad-based look at UM and UConn defensive efforts from the start of the season until now.
That's not always been the best way to come to a final conclusion.
Having remembered how Miami turned up the defensive pressure multiple times during the NCAA Tournament, and then made second half comebacks, do the cumulative defensive statistics truly paint an accurate picture of what’s going to happen on April 1?
Remember, in the first round, Drake’s experienced point guard Roman Penn was not able to consistently handle Miami’s full-court press that eventually led to multiple turnovers. That’s how the Canes turned around what looked like a first-round loss and eventually won 63-56.
Ask Indiana about Miami’s defense. It was a team with a future point guard that will play in the NBA in Jalen Hood-Schifino, plus first team All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis at forward. The Hoosiers did not handle Miami’s defensive pressure well enough.
Hood-Schifino had 3 turnovers versus UM, as did fellow IU guard Trey Galloway, a player that consistently handles the basketball. There also were not enough touches for Jackson-Davis in critical moments.
Those turnovers and missed chances with Jackson-Davis were major reasons why Miami won 85-69 after IU had led 49-47 with 13:43 to play in the game.
Houston also fell prey to Miami’s defensive pressure and shot just 37.5% against the Hurricanes. Miami’s speed kept a hand in the face of Houston shooters for the majority of the contest, and it allowed Miami to dominate the majority of the second half before winning 89-75.
Texas collapsed under UM’s defensive efforts, too, after being the better team for the first-30 minutes of action.
Like Drake and Indiana, Texas was a culprit of Miami’s defense at the wrong time – during the final 10 minutes of the contest – when they shot just 5 of 15 from the floor and gave up a double-digit lead. Miami won 88-81.
Can Miami’s defense fend off a quality UConn offensive attack? To do that, the Hurricanes will need an excellent game plan from Jim Larrañaga and his staff. One of college basketball’s most experienced coaches, the 73-year old head coach will have a good plan, leave no doubt.
Overall, it’s up to the better if the Huskies should be 5.5-point favorites. This article was about one particular area, defense, as to why the point spread should be closer. But it was not an opinion; information produced by facts from the four NCAA Tournament games the Hurricanes won.
Bet as one sees fit and enjoy what should be a fantastic game between Miami and UConn.
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Fan Nation High school football recruiting analyst covering the state of Florida, as well as across the Southeastern United States and the state of Texas.