Miami vs Kentucky: How The Two Teams Match Up And Who Has The Edge

A Battle Of Two Top Ranked Teams Will Tell A Lot About Both Programs Tuesday Night

Miami's biggest test of the season is almost here, as they'll travel up to Rupp Arena to face the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday night. Sitting in the Top 10 of the AP Poll, Miami can get a statement win here early in the season and get some good momentum in their direction.

While Kentucky isn't as strong as they were in the 2010s, John Calipari still has a good squad full of young talent. With Oscar Tshiebwe leaving for the pros, the Wildcats are now a perimeter focused team with led by two seniors and some talented freshmen recruits.

Miami is built differently, as they only have one former five star recruit (Matthew Cleveland) who was a transfer anyways. Jim Larrañaga's squad is led by a strong core of upperclassmen, headlined by junior guard Wooga Poplar who is having a breakout campaign.

Betting lines have yet to go live, but it's expected the Kentucky will get the edge at home and the programs notoriety. However the numbers may point in the other direction.

The following are areas of the game that will play a big part in the result of this matchup:

Rebounding: Kentucky (38.5 RPG), Miami (36.0 RPG)

As previously mentioned, Kentucky no longer has their dominant rebounder Tshiebwe as it has turned into more of a group effort in Lexington. The Wildcats are led by sophomore Adou Thiero (7.4 RPG) on the glass with senior Tre Mitchell (6.2 RPG) right behind him.

However the more dominant rebounder in this matchup comes from the Hurricanes with Norchad Omier (9.2 RPG). While Kentucky does have the edge in rebounds per game, Omier might single-handedly be able to sway in Miami's direction.

The biggest issue will be if Omier can keep himself out of foul trouble, as him being off the floor for too long could keep the Hurricanes out of this game.

If Omier though is able to stay out of foul trouble and be his dominant self in the paint, the edge goes to Miami here.

Outside Shooting: Kentucky (42.5% 3PT), Miami (45.8% 3PT)

The outside shooting dynamics of these two teams are what should make this game electric. Kentucky's starting lineup outside of Thiero have all shown the ability to hit the outside jumper, and it's the same with Miami as Omier hasn't showed enough consistency from there yet.

Players to watch out for Kentucky are Rob Dillingham (50% 3PT) and Reed Sheppard (66.7% 3PT), both true freshmen off the bench who have been knock down from behind the arc. Given Miami's bench has struggled to put up bench scoring, Larrañaga will need to find a way to keep Miami in the game when some of the starters rest.

Reed Sheppard - 7 Threes pic.twitter.com/XdoEvUS5Hq

— Rare Rookies #BBN (@rarerookies) November 18, 2023

However the best jump shooter between both sides looks to be Poplar, who has been efficient on high volume this season. Poplar is shooting 6.4 attempts per game at nearly at 60% rate. Poplar did have his first bad performance from deep against Georgia, but got back on track against Kansas State.

In terms of the head-to-head here, both teams also do well defending the outside shot. But looking at overall edge, Kentucky having two knockdown options off the bench gives them the edge here on paper.

Turnover Battle: Kentucky (8.2 TPG), Miami (12.4 TPG)

Perhaps the biggest difference between these two teams in their turnovers, as Kentucky doesn't have a single player averaging two or more turnovers per game. On the flip side, Miami only has one starter averaging under two turnovers per game.

Poplar has struggled so far turning over the ball, as he's had at least two in every game he's played this season. He'll likely see a lot of matching up against freshman D.J. Wagner and Sheppard off the bench. Both have been good at forcing turnovers, so Miami will need to be careful what situations they put Poplar in.

While it will be an area that could get out of hand for the Hurricanes, they can limit turnover issues if they play through Bensley Joseph and Nijel Pack as playmakers. With that being said, the edge still goes to Kentucky at the moment as Miami needs to overcome their woes here.

Prediction: Miami's core has played in a lot of big games last year, and should help them here. However going on the road to Rupp Arena to face a Kentucky team that lost a hard-fought matchup against Kansas is a tough situation. I think Kentucky takes this game in a close one and it's a positive for the Hurricanes despite the result.

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2023-24 Miami Hurricanes Basketball Schedule

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