Miami vs Texas: Preview and Prediction
A trip to the NCAA Tournament’s Final 4 awaits the winner of the Miami Hurricanes versus the Texas Longhorns.
Jim Larrañaga and his Hurricanes will be facing a talented Longhorns squad, but it’s not yet known exactly what the starting lineup will be that comes out on the court to face the Orange and Green.
There has continued to be speculation about Texas forward Dylan Disu and his left foot bone bruise. He had been tremendous through the prior six games before his injury, shooting an incredible 72.9% from the floor.
In particular, Disu was 14 of 20 from the floor and scored 28 points versus Penn State. The Longhorns defeated the Nittany Lions 71-66 with Disu’s offensive efforts leading the way. Whether Disu plays even for 10 minutes changes the game.
Texas head coach Rodney Terry did not give many clues if Disu would play against Miami during the last press conference, but did offer an important point about Texas missing a key player.
“We went through the Big 12 Tournament without Timmy Allen, a guy that had become a real focal point of our offense down the stretch in Big 12 play, and (the) next man up had to step in and do the job for us.”
Further, with Disu having a foot injury and only playing just over a minute of action versus Xavier, Texas brought in reserve forward Christian Bishop. He went for 18 points and 9 rebounds from just 24 minutes of playing time.
No question, Texas proved it possessed the depth to miss Disu in the starting lineup and still play quality NCAA Tournament basketball.
With that in mind, here are the details for fans to know prior to today’s contest tips off prior to further diving into the game later today with three primary questions that will help determine the outcome.
Miami vs Texas: Game Information, TV, Radio, and Betting Odds
Also, it's good to know that Miami players and coaches had a good time with the CBS crew prior to the game:
Pre-Elite Eight practice, media and chats with the CBS crew 🙌 pic.twitter.com/ocgOTmGiSy
— Canes Men’s Basketball (@CanesHoops) March 26, 2023
There have been many other questions to consider about the Hurricanes playing the Longhorns. Trying to figure out matchups when Disu comes out of the lineup (if he plays at all), has been the most troublesome.
That’s why the first question of three game questions comes from an overall perspective.
1) Which team’s bench comes up big?
As noted above, Texas forward Bishop went off against Xavier. Now, the Musketeers have been a much more half-court oriented team than what Miami has been and will continue to be tonight. Still, Bishop was tremendous and his efforts could be used off the bench again or as a starter if Disu cannot play.
Miami will also need to counter the 3-point shooting efforts of Texas reserve guard Sir'Jabari Rice. He’s knocked down 9 of 18 shots from deep since the NCAA Tournament began. When he’s hot, Rice can carry an offense for several minutes of a game.
For the Hurricanes, getting as much, if not at least similar, production from forward Anthony Walker as it did versus Houston will be critical. Walker’s open-court athleticism, and just overall determination to get to the rim and dunk, helped Miami make an early statement versus Houston.
Walker also knocked down a 3-point shot and finished with 7 points from 16 minutes of playing time. If Walker plays well today by drawing the Texas big men away from the bucket as well as forcing them to sprint end-to-end over and over, that will be a major advantage for the Hurricanes.
Finally, watch out for Miami’s Bensley Joseph. He’s due for a quality game off the bench. He’s a strong lead guard that can shoot from long range.
2) What will the tempo be?
During Miami’s last postgame press conference, Jordan Miller made mention of how it’s hard for a team to prepare for Miami’s style of play.
In short, Miller meant that few teams have the speed that Miami does, nor do they have the same mentality to get up and down and run the court for the entire basketball game.
As the following tweet denoted, Miami's offense can stress a defense even if it's one as talented as Houston's:
About last night...
— Canes Men’s Basketball (@CanesHoops) March 25, 2023
🔸 Second time ever defeating a No. 1 ranked team.
🔸 First time ever beating a No. 1 team away from home.
🔸 Most points Houston has allowed since Nov. 2019. pic.twitter.com/Or2VUxF4Fy
If Texas gets into a track meet with Miami, that may not benefit the Longhorns despite a bevy of talented athletes on their roster. A continual point here, it’s about mentality. Miami lives off of uptempo basketball while other teams usually try to combat it by playing a more deliberate style.
This area becomes more pressing for Texas if Disu cannot play. Losing his ability to stop Miami runs with his excellent one-on-one and shot-making skills would be hard to overcome if he’s sitting on the bench next to Terry.
It’s March Madness, so which player(s) makes big shots?
Sometimes a player steals the limelight. That was Miami’s Nijel Pack in the last contest, drilling 7 of 10 from behind the arc and scoring 26 points in total. For much of the second half of Miami’s 89-75 win over Houston, the Cougars just could not defend Pack at all. Texas must do better than Houston did, and they have the guard talent to make that happen.
Forward Norchad Omier will make some thunderous dunks tonight, and he’s going to carve out space like he always does to hit tough inside shots over taller defenders.
At some point, ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong will put together a series of big shots, too. His shot making has been tremendous throughout his Miami career and he's not going to suddenly slow down tonight. Look for Wong to drive the basketball just as much as he launches from deep, however. He's a skilled overall offensive performer.
For Houston, look for Marcus Carr and Tyreese Hunter, the starting guards, to take critical shots and handle the ball when the shot clock winds down. They have been excellent players during clutch moments this season.
Additionally, Texas forward Timmy Allen appears to be pretty healthy again. He’s not been scoring as much of late after getting back into the lineup, but he can certainly knock down shots as evidenced by his 18 points at Kansas earlier this season, as well as going for 18 points versus Baylor. Allen’s challenge might be at the other end of the court, however.
The pick to click tonight will be Miller from Miami. Allen and other Texas defenders will have a hard time staying with one of college basketball’s most versatile offensive players.
Miller found ways to get shots off near the rim against Houston, as he went for 13 points by hitting 5 of 7 from the floor, including 1 of 2 from behind the arc, as well as 2 for 2 from the foul line. Look for Miller to score 18 points tonight. He will be the X-factor for the Canes.
Prediction
This will be a game where Miami has a couple of more runs than Texas. The up-and-down pace will afford Miami an early second half lead that grows into double digits. At that point, the Canes overall team speed will be hard to press when Texas attempts to come back. Canes roll on to the NCAA Final Four.
Miami 85 Texas 77
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Fan Nation High school football recruiting analyst covering the state of Florida, as well as across the Southeastern United States and the state of Texas.