What Michigan's Grad-Transfer Interest Reveals About 2020-21 Roster

Michigan's name has surfaced as a potential landing spot for at least three active grad-transfers, which means the Wolverines should soon have roster attrition.

Over the last week, since the 2020 season came to an official end with the cancellation of the NCAA tournament March 12, Michigan has been named as a potential destination for a number of grad-transfers, with Dartmouth guard Brendan Barry seemingly a great fit for both the program and the player. 

What's interesting about all of this is, presently, Michigan has no where to put a grad-transfer. The Wolverines are currently committed to 14 scholarship players in 2020-21 and only 13 are allowed in men's basketball.  

Position	Freshman	Sophomore	Junior	Senior
1's	Zeb Jackson (1)		David DeJulius (8)
2's & 3's	Jace Howard (2)	Cole Bajema (6)	Adrien Nunez (9)	Eli Brooks (12)
	Terrance Williams (3)	Franz Wagner (7)
4's & 5's	Isaiah Todd (4)		Colin Castleton (10)	Isaiah Livers (13)
	Hunter Dickinson (5)		Brandon Johns Jr. (11)	Austin Davis (14)

Michigan also remains the favorite to land five-star Josh Christopher, which would bring the Maize and Blue up to 15 scholarship players. If you throw in a grad-transfer, U-M is at 16, three over the NCAA limit. 

So what's going on? 

Here are the most likely scenarios unfolding behind the scenes. 

Scenario 1: As has been speculated, Michigan will lose two players to transfer - most likely Colin Castleton and Adrien Nunez as both players saw younger players take their minutes, relegating them to minor reserves. The Wolverines will also lose a third player, either to an unexpected transfer, or they think one of Isaiah Livers or Franz Wagner will declare for the NBA Draft. 

Scenario 2: Michigan expects the attrition of Castleton and Nunez, and are hedging their bets on Christopher. He has yet to announce his decision, but there are indications he could be anytime now. While U-M cannot wait forever - Harvard grad-transfer Seth Towns announced for Ohio State over the weekend - it could slow-play a few of the grad-transfers long enough to learn what Christopher is doing. If he decides to go to Michigan, the Wolverines back off transfers. If he decides to go elsewhere, they fill in the gap with a grad-transfer. 

Scenario 3: Once again a pair of underclassmen transfer out of the program, but now Michigan coach Juwan Howard is also considering the loss of five-star Isaiah Todd, who was rumored to be exploring a professional opportunity in Australia. Those plans, however, seem to be fading as Todd has made numerous social media posts lately indicating he will play for U-M next season (the coronavirus pandemic may also make such an overseas opportunity impossible). 

Howard, though, could just be being prudent, understanding through conversations internally that Michigan will lose two players to transfer and that if any other player leaves (Wagner, Livers, Todd or an unexpected underclassman) or Christopher doesn't commit, the Wolverines will have one roster spot available in 2020-21. 

In my estimation, Michigan is somewhere between scenarios 2 & 3. If Christopher commits, like most experts are forecasting, U-M would back off grad-transfers. Though if he does and the Wolverines continue to pursue Barry or Mike Smith from Columbia then we'll know that Howard and Co. are anticipating at least three early departures from their program. 

What Christopher does, and how Michigan responds, will be intriguing to watch these next few weeks as we get a better feel for what U-M's roster will look like next season.