Analytics Tracker: Week 8 Statistical Deep Dive

Take a detailed look at what Michigan has done on the hardwood.

Although Michigan fared just fine in a 86-60 victory over UMass Lowell without junior forward Isaiah Livers, who has been ruled out indefinitely with a groin injury, replacing the productivity of the Wolverines’ most efficient offensive player will be a massive undertaking for head coach Juwan Howard as his squad heads into the bulk of an arduous conference slate.

Livers ranks second among qualified Big Ten players with a 50.0 three-point shooting percentage, fourth with a 63.6 Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and sixth with a 122.7 Offensive Rating (ORtg) according to KenPom advanced statistics. As a sophomore, he led a talented Maize and Blue squad in these same metrics.

His 72.6 percent of available minutes played (%Min) trails only senior point guard Zavier Simpson (77.9%Min) and junior guard Eli Brook (76.4%Min). More importantly, Livers has been a workhorse against U-M’s most challenging foes. Against Tier A and B opponents, his 88.9%Min is significantly higher than any other Michigan contributor, and he has responded with a 124.8 ORtg, 60.2 eFG% and 48.9 three-point shooting percentage in these contests. Michigan is +106 when he is on the court on the season.

He’s also been Howard’s most consistent player. Over a four-game stretch to begin the month of December in which the Wolverines shot only 30.5% from beyond the arc, Livers was steady in hitting 47.1% of his three-point attempts. For a team that has been abysmal in true road games this season, this reliability can prove invaluable.

With six-consecutive matchups with KenPom top 50 teams, three of which are away from home, replacing this production and dependability is not only going to be a challenge but a necessity.

Here is a look at other player and team-specific trends and advanced statistics using the KenPom model. If you are unfamiliar with KenPom and its metrics, you can read a quick primer here.

*To qualify for individual conference rankings, players must log between 40 percent and 60 percent of possible minutes played, depending on the metric.

Key Trends:

•In its three victories during the month of December, Michigan amassed a 129.6 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating, 62.2 eFG% and 40.9 Offensive Rebound Percentage (OR%). In its three losses, it’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency score was 86.2, ieFG% 47.1 and iOR% 21.5.

•Over the first two months of the season, the Wolverines have played only two true road games and have struggled offensively in both. In these two contests, U-M has managed just 52.5 points per game, a 78.5 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating, 35.8 eFG%, and shot just 43.4% from two-point range and 16.2% from beyond the arc.

•U-M benefited from an average of 34.0 points off the bench in its victories over UMass Lowell and Presbyterian. In its three losses this season, Michigan's substitutes contributed only 12.3 points per game and were held under 10 points in two of these matchups.

•The Wolverines continue to play at a pace slower than many expected coming into the season. Their 70.0 Adjusted Tempo ranks 170th in the country, and their average possession length of 17.1 seconds is 152nd. At an average of 9.5 fast break points scored per game, only 12.0% of U-M’s total points have come in transition. In the month of December, the Maize and Blue’s fast break scoring output fell to 8.2 points per game, or 10.9% of its total points scored.

•Michigan ranks second in the Big Ten three-point percentage yielded at 27.8 and have limited 11 of 13 opponents to 35.0% shooting or worse from beyond the arc this season.

•After surrendering 13.7 offensive rebounds and 40.7 points per game in the paint in the first three games of December, the Wolverines limited their final three opponents of the month to an average 7.3 offensive boards and 25.3 low-post points.

Starting 5

Point Guard: Senior Zavier Simpson

Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Averages): 11.2 points, 8.9 assists, 4.5 rebounds

After scoring in double figures in four of Michigan’s first five games of the season, Simpson has managed 10 or more points just twice over his last eight contests. A career 59.1% free-throw shooter, Simpson has made 14 of 16 shots from the charity stripe over the last five games (87.5%).

Shooting Guard: Junior Eli Brooks

Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Averages): 11.5 points, 2.5 assists, 3.1 rebounds

In the Wolverines three victories during the month of December, Brooks averaged a 145.3 ORtg and 66.1 eFG%. These numbers were drastically lower in U-M’s three losses, in which he logged an average ORtg of 56.7 and a 36.8 eFG%.

Small Forward: Freshman Franz Wagner

Traditional Stat Line: 8.2 points, 0.4 assists, 3.4 rebounds

Wagner scored five or fewer points in four of six games during the month of December, and hit more than one three-point shot attempt just once. In total, he connected on 7 of 25 three-point attempts (28.0%) during the final month of 2019.

Power Forward: Sophomore Brandon Johns Jr.:

Traditional Stat Line: 4.3 points, 0.8 assists, 4.5 rebounds

Johns was solid in his first-career start for the Maize and Blue, finishing with a 127.0 ORtg and 75.0 eFG% in 21 minutes. After logging just one game with an ORtg of 100.0 or better in the season’s first eight games, he has surpassed the 100.0 threshold in three of the last four contests in which he’s played.

Center: Senior Jon Teske

Traditional Stat Line: 14.4 points, 0.8 assists, 8.4 rebounds

With a career-high 25 points against UMass Lowell, Teske moved into Michigan’s leading scorer spot at 14.4 points per game. The senior has hit 31 of 40 two-point shots (77.5%) over his last five games, and his 65.4% shooting from two-point range on the season is the fifth-best in the Big Ten.

Off the Bench (Played in at least 10 percent of teams total minutes)

Sophomore Guard David DeJulius

Traditional Stat Line: 7.9 points, 1.2 assists, 2.5 rebounds

After a string of three games in which he boasted a 70.5 eFG% and averaged an ORtg of 128.3, DeJulius struggled against UML with a 55.0 ORtg and 30.0 eFG%. His two turnovers against the River Hawks tied a season-worst—he was responsible for just one giveaway over the previous five games.

Sophomore Center/Forward Colin Castleton:

Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Average): 4.3 points, 0.5 assists, 3.3 rebounds

Castleton’s 30%Poss was the highest of any Wolverine against UMass Lowell, and he responded with a 103.0 ORtg—his second-straight game with an ORtg of 100.0 or better. With three offensive rebounds against the River Hawks, the sophomore big man now possesses the second-best OR% on the squad (13.4).

Redshirt Junior Center Austin Davis:

Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Average): 4.7 points, 0.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds

With a combined 20 minutes of playing time against UMass Lowell and Presbyterian, Davis has seen action in 10.5 percent of available minutes on the season. He has enjoyed a productive December in limited minutes, recording a 136.3 ORtg and 75.0 eFG%. He paces U-M with an 18.1 OR% that is 4.7 percentage points higher than the next closest Wolverine.

Sophomore guard Adrien Nunez:

Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Average): 3.2 points, 0.1 assists, 0.1 rebounds

Following a six-game stretch in which he failed to score a point, Nunez has contributed 11 points and registered a 50.0 eFG% over his last two appearances. During this stretch he has connected on 3 of 7 three-point tries (42.9%)—he was just 6 of 24 (25.0%) from beyond the arc in during the first 11 games of his sophomore campaign.

Injured

Small Forward: Junior Isaiah Livers

Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Averages): 13.6 points, 1.1 assists, 3.3 rebounds

At the time of his injury, Livers was pacing U-M in ORtg (122.7), eFG% (63.6), and three-point shooting percentage (50.0%).

KenPom Most Frequent Lineup Combinations (last five games):

1. Simpson, Brooks, Livers, Wagner, Teske — 24.4%

2. Simpson, Brooks, Wagner, Johns, Teske — 6.9%

3. Simpson, DeJulius, Livers, Wagner, Teske — 4.5%

4. Simpson, DeJulius, Brooks, Johns, Teske — 4.3%

5. Brooks, DeJulius, Nunez, Castleton, Davis — 4.2%

KenPom Depth Chart (last five games):

PG: Simpson (79%), Brooks (17%)

SG: DeJulius (49%), Brooks (44%)

SF: Livers (45%), Nunez (18%), Wagner (17%), Wagner (16%)

PF: Wagner (42%), Johns (27%), Castleton (17%), Livers (7%), Baird (5%)

C: Teske (63%), Davis (20%), Castleton (10%), Johns (5%)