Opponent Tracker: Surging Squads and Conference Clashes

Michigan basketball is now tuned up and ready for Big Ten play.

Michigan closed out a trying month of December with back-to-back lopsided wins over low-major conference opponents but ultimately stalled against quality opponents during the year’s final month, finishing 1-3 against teams ranked in the top 50 according to KenPom advanced metrics.

The schedule does not relent in the new year for the Wolverines, who have faced the eighth toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom. Commencing with its road clash against No.14 Michigan State Jan.5, three of U-M’s next five opponents are ranked in the AP Top 25, four in the KenPom top 50, and all but Purdue are in the midst of winning streaks of at least three games.

The Spartans have won five in a row and seven of their last eight, Minnesota has conquered three-straight foes and four of its last five, Iowa is on a four-game undefeated tear since losing to the Maize and Blue Dec. 6 and upstart Penn State has triumphed in four consecutive games and six of its last seven. It doesn’t get any easier from there, with 11 of the Big Ten’s 14 team ranked in the KenPom Top 50 and six in the AP Top 25.

Currently deadlocked with 12 other conference foes at 1-1 in the conference, the month of January has the potential to make or break the Wolverines' season.

Here is a closer look at U-M’s next five games, as well as an update on how its last five opponents fared last week.

Michigan’s Next Five Opponents

Combined Record: 46-18

Jan. 5: at No. 14 Michigan State (10-3, 2-0)

Jan. 9: vs Purdue (8-5, 1-1)

Jan 12: at Minnesota (7-5, 1-1)

Jan. 17: at No. 23 Iowa (10-3, 1-1)

Jan. 22: vs No. 21 Penn State (11-2, 1-1)

Jan. 5 - at No. 14 Michigan State (10-3, 2-0):

No. 14 Michigan State sprinted past Western Michigan 95-62 Dec. 29 despite being without the services of senior point guard Cassius Winston. The Spartans’ leading scorer and Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year, Winston suffered a bone bruise in his knee at practice on Friday and was held out of action but the injury is not considered serious.

Sophomore point guard Foster Loyer got the start in Winston’s place, scoring 16 points and adding six assists. Freshman guard Rocket Watts returned to action for MSU after missing its previous four games with an injury, and contributed nine points and five helpers. Michigan State has now won seven of its last games, with an average scoring margin of +16.9.

Jan. 9 - vs Purdue (8-5, 1-1):

Purdue’s typically plodding offensive erupted to almost hit the century mark in a 97-62 dispatching of Central Michigan Dec. 28. Averaging only 61.0 points over its previous four contests, the Boilermakers season-high point total was fueled by a season-best 54.4% shooting performance—its first time hitting better than 50.0% of its field goal tries in its last seven contests. PU is shooting just 42.7% from the field this season (231st nationally), and 33.2% from three (175th nationally). The ill effects of these offensive woes have been mitigated by a stifling defense that has yet to yield more than 70 points in a game this season, and is sixth nationally with an 86.6 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rating.

Junior center Matt Haarms, who missed Purdue’s last two contests after suffering his second concussion of the season, returned to action with 11 points, two rebounds and a block in 11 minutes of action.

Jan. 12 - at Minnesota (7-5, 1-1):

The surging Gophers dismantled Florida International 89-62, their third-straight victory by at least 13 points. During this stretch, which includes a victory over No. 5 Ohio State, Minnesota is scoring 86.3 points per game and winning by an average of 20. After a 1-3 start, U-M has won six of its last eight contests, recording an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency score better than 100.0 in seven of these tilts, according to KenPom.

Against FIU, sophomore center Daniel Oturu amassed 21 points and 20 rebounds, becoming the first Gopher to log a 20-20 games since 1966. Oturu is averaging 18.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game this season.

Jan. 17 - at No. 23 Iowa (10-3, 1-1):

No. 23 Iowa captured its fourth-straight victory in a 93-51 rout of Kennesaw State Dec. 29. The Hawkeyes have complemented an offense that is third nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (114.8) with a stingy defense over this hot streak, surrendering only 60.3 points per game.

Led by junior center Luka Garza’s 23 points and senior center Ryan Kreiner’s 20, UI finished with a 64-22 points in the paint advantage and is averaging 41.2 points in the post over its last five games Iowa is 6-1 at home this season, with each win coming by at least 13 points.

Jan. 22 - vs No. 21 Penn State (11-2, 1-1):

One of the biggest surprises of the season thus far, Penn State boasts a 5-2 record against high-major conference foes with victories over No. 15 Maryland, Alabama, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Georgetown. Its only two setbacks were to No. 5 Ohio State in Columbus and a two-point loss to a 9-3 Ole Miss squad in the NIT Season Tip-Off tournament—a game in which it squandered a 21-point second-half lead.

With its 90-59 conquest of Cornell Dec. 29, PSU completed an undefeated non-conference home slate for a second consecutive season. Led by senior forward Lamar Stevens’ 16.4 points per game, PSU is averaging 80.4 points per contest while allowing 65.9.

Michigan’s Last Five Opponents:

Combined Record: 39-28

UMass Lowell (W. 86-60): 6-9

Presbyterian (W, 86-44): 3-10

No. 4 Oregon (L, 71-70 OT): 11-2

Illinois (L, 71-62): 9-4 (1-1)

No. 23 Iowa (W 103-91): 10-3 (1-1)

UMass Lowell (W, 86-60):

With its 86-60 loss to Michigan Dec. 29, UMass Lowell concludes December on a three-game skid after winning three of four to open the month. All three defeats have been by at least 12 points, with opponents scoring 46.7 points in the paint per game and shooting a combined 62.0 percent from two-point range.

Presbyterian (W, 86-44):

Presbyterian demolished Division II Kentucky Christian 81-56 Dec. 29 to snap a four-game losing streak. It was the Blue Hoses’ second victory over a Division II opponent this season, and they remain an abysmal 1-10 against Division 1 foes.

No. 4 Oregon (L, 71-70 OT):

No. 4 Oregon extended its win-streak to five games with a 98-59 demolition of Alabama State. Four Ducks scored at least 10 points, led by junior guard Chris Duarte’s 31-point, six-assist outing. During this five-game tear, the Ducks possess a sterling 121.6 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency score according to KenPom, while holding opposing offenses to a 91.8 grade in the metric—more than eight points below the 100.0 national average.

Illinois (L, 71-62):

Illinois thrashed North Carolina A&T 95-64 Dec. 29 to improve to 9-4 on the season. Freshman center Kofi Cockburn scored a career-high 26 points and grabbed nine rebounds, and sophomore guard Ayo Dosunmo added 19 points and seven boards—his 10th double-digit scoring effort of the season. The Illini hit 11 of 26 three-point attempt (42.3%), the first time they’ve shot better than 40.0% from downtown since Nov. 26.

No. 23 Iowa (W, 103-91):

No. 23 Iowa recorded a 130.7 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency score and 64.6 Effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%) in its 93-51 bludgeoning of Kennesaw State Dec. 29, both season highs. Freshman point guard Joe Touissant rebounded from an abysmal first start in place of senior point guard Jordan Bohannon, who is out for the remainder of the year with a hip injury, with six points, seven assists and five steals. Junior center Luka Garza has scored in double digits in 12 of 13 games this season, and has stockpiled at least 20 points in five of the last six.

Where do you think Michigan will stand in the conference rankings after its first five games of 2020? Comment below!!!