Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts Michigan Football's postseason fate in 2024

After three straight Big Ten championships and trips to the College Football Playoff, what's in store for the Wolverines this fall?

Dec 3, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards (7) celebrates with ight end Colston Loveland (18) after Loveland scored a touchdown during the first half of the Big Ten Championship against the Purdue Boilermakers at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off three straight Big Ten championships, three consecutive trips to the College Football Playoff and a national championship in 2023, Michigan football has enjoyed a resurgence back into the highest tier of college football over the past three seasons.

Will that continue as the Wolverines enter a new era under head coach Sherrone Moore? Michigan returns one of the nation's top defenses this fall, but that group will be coached by an entirely new staff on that side of the football. Offensively, questions abound with an all-new starting offensive line and a new starting quarterback. Tight end Colston Loveland and running back Donovan Edwards are back as a pair of go-to playmakers for the Wolverines, but U-M also lost it's top two wide receivers from a season ago as well.

With all that, Michigan is expected to take a step backward with a tough schedule that features matchups against preseason No. 4 Texas, No. 23 USC and No. 3 Oregon at home, as well as road trips to No. 2 Ohio State and to the West Coast in a rematch with national runner-up Washington. With all those circumstances under consideration, ESPN's college football reporter duo of Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach each predicted the Wolverines to fall short of a fourth straight trip to the College Football Playoff, despite the expansion to a 12-team field.

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh high-fives offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore after a play during the second half of U-M's 26-0 win over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis on Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

In their projections for all 36 bowls games this season, both Bonagura and Schlabach have Michigan slated in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl against an SEC opponent in Orlando, Fla. Bonagura matches the Wolverines up against preseason No. 6 Ole Miss, while Schlabach sees the Wolverines squaring off with preseason No. 15 Tennessee. Schlabach noted that he did consider Michigan for an at-large selection into the CFP.

While this would no doubt be a disappointing outcome for the Wolverines in 2024, considering all the talent they return defensively in guys like Will Johnson, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and others, it speaks to just how much turnover has occurred in Ann Arbor this offseason. It's also a testament to just how difficult life will be in the new Big Ten Conference, which adds Oregon, USC, Washington and UCLA this season.

There's evidence Michigan is already adjusting to those changes on the recruiting trail, where Moore has the Wolverines with the No. 12-ranked class in the nation roughly four months ahead of National Signing Day. Should it hold through to signing day, Michigan's current average player rating of 92.01 projects as a Top 10 class, and would be a higher per player average than any of former head coach Jim Harbaugh's recruiting classes.

The Wolverines open the 2024 season by hosting Fresno State on Aug. 31 (7:30 p.m. / NBC) at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.

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