Bowl Projections: Michigan Football falls out of College Football Playoff race

Following last weekend's loss at Washington, the Wolverines would likely need to win out in order to make their way back into the race for the 12-team College Football Playoff...

Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore looks up during the first half against Fresno State at Michigan Stadium at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK

Following their second loss through six weeks, No. 24 Michigan is on the verge of elimination from the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

The Wolverines (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) would likely need to win each of their remaining six games, two of which come against No. 3 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State, in order to reach the CFP for a fourth consecutive season. That reality is reflected in an updated look at bowl projections from a variety of national publications, none of which have Michigan reaching the postseason tournament.

Here's where the Wolverines are projected to land after their 27-17 loss to Washington on Saturday...

ESPN

Kyle Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee (Reliaquest Bowl — Tampa, Fla.)
Mark Schlabach: Michigan vs. Missouri (Music City Bowl — Nashville, Tenn.)

For the last two weeks, ESPN's Kyle Bonagura had Michigan making the College Football Playoff, but the Wolverines fall out and land in the Reliaquest Bowl (Tuesday, Dec. 31) against current No. 8-Tennessee in his latest projection. It would be just the second meeting all-time between the Wolverines and the Volunteers, the first of which came in the 2002 Citrus Bowl when Tennessee defeated Michigan, 45-17. This past weekend, the Volunteers were upset by Arkansas

Meanwhile, Mark Schlabach hasn't considered U-M a playoff contender for most of the season, and drops the Wolverines further down the Big Ten's bowl tiers to the Music City Bowl (Monday, Dec. 30) against current-No. 21Missouri. The Wolverines and Tigers have split four previous meetings, each of which were played in Ann Arbor. However, the two have not met on the gridiron since 1975, a 31-7 win for Michigan.

Athlon Sports

Projection: Michigan vs. LSU (Citrus Bowl — Orlando, Fla.)

After projecting the Wolverines to reach the College Football Playoff last week, Athlon Sports has dropped Michigan out of the field of 12 down to the Citrus Bowl, the highest non-playoff bowl game a Big Ten team can play in. In this hypothetical scenario, the Wolverines would face a relatively familiar opponent in head coach Brian Kelly, who spent 12 seasons at Notre Dame before bolting to the SEC. This would, however, be the first ever meeting on the gridiron between Michigan and LSU.

CBS Sports

Projection: Michigan vs. Missouri (Citrus Bowl — Orlando, Fla.)

CBS Sports also had the Wolverines in the College Football Playoff last week, but like Athlon drops Michigan down to the Citrus Bowl. This is the second projection of a matchup between the Wolverines and the Tigers, both of whom suffered defeats last weekend. Missouri fell from No. 9 to No. 21 in the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll following a lopsided 41-10 loss to Texas A&M on Saturday.

USA Today

Projection: Michigan vs. Tennessee (Music City Bowl — Nashville, Tenn.)

Another projection for Michigan to the Music City Bowl here from USA Today, but the opponent here would be an unfortunate draw for the Wolverines. Tennessee would have a virtual home game in this scenario, as they make the short trip from Knoxville to Nashville. It's hard to imagine the Volunteers dropping this far down the bowl game pecking order, but it's certainly possible following their loss to Arkansas and with future matchups against Alabama and Georgia.

Action Sports

Projection: Michigan vs. Missouri (Music City Bowl — Orlando, Fla.)

College football reporter Brett McMurphy is in full agreement with ESPN's Mark Schlabach here, matching up the Wolverines and the Tigers in the Music City Bowl. Interestingly, McMurphy had these same two programs meeting in the Citrus Bowl last week, but both Michigan and Missouri fell in the bowl game pecking order following their Week 6 losses. According to Action Sports, the hypothetical point spread would favor the Tigers by 2.5 points over the Wolverines.

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