Can Michigan keep pace with previous CFP National Champions?

When it comes to the College Football Playoff era, programs that win a National Championship tend to perform very well the following season.

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Six months after winning the National Championship in 2023, the attention has now turned to the upcoming 2024 season and whether or not the Wolverines can repeat the success of last year. Although talented, it’s certainly going to be an uphill battle as Michigan looks to replace nearly 20 key contributors who departed for the NFL, along with replacing Jim Harbaugh and a majority of the defensive staff from 2023.

The losses are significant, but there's still plenty of elite talent remaining in Ann Arbor. There’s also a lot of confidence that head coach Sherrone Moore, who's entering his first season as a head coach at the collegiate level, can continue the success that has been built over the last three seasons.

Given that the expectations remain high in Ann Arbor, we thought we’d take a look at how CFP era teams have fared the year after winning a national championship:

How playoff era teams have fared the year after winning a Natty:

🏆2014 OSU: 14-1, Natty
▪️2015 OSU: 12-1, missed playoff

🏆2015 Bama: 14-1, Natty
▪️2016 Bama: 14-1, lost in Natty

🏆2016 Clem: 14-1, Natty
▪️2017 Clem: 12-2, missed playoff

🏆2017 Bama: 13-1, Natty
▪️2018… pic.twitter.com/ozPpkKalVX

— The Winged Helmet (@TWH_Chris) May 14, 2024

• 2014 OSU: 14-1, National champion

• 2015 OSU: 12-1, missed playoff

• 2015 Bama: 14-1, National champion

• 2016 Bama: 14-1, lost in Natty

• 2016 Clem: 14-1, National champion

• 2017 Clem: 12-2, missed playoff

• 2017 Bama: 13-1, National champion

• 2018 Bama: 14-1, lost in Natty

• 2018 Clem: 15-0, National champion

• 2019 Clem: 14-1, lost in Natty

• 2019 LSU: 15-0, National champion

• 2020 LSU: 5-5, missed playoff

• 2020 Bama: 13-0, National champion

• 2021 Bama: 13-2, lost in Natty

• 2021 Georgia: 14-1, National champion

• 2022 Georgia: 15-0, National champion

• 2023 Georgia: 13-1, missed playoff

• 2023 Michigan: 15-0, National champion

• 2024 Michigan: ?

Noteworthy:

- Biggest fall off was LSU from 15-0 to 5-5, but that was during the 2020 COVID season.

- 1 repeat champion: Georgia

- 4 times the National champion has missed the playoff the following year

- 5 times the reigning National Champion has been back in the national championship game the next year

- Average record year after winning natty: 13-1 (excluding LSU)

After reviewing the numbers above, it becomes clear that National Championship winning teams in the playoff era tend to perform very well the following year. With that being said, the challenges facing Michigan are somewhat unique when compared to all of the other teams mentioned above. Perhaps the biggest difference is that none of those teams have lost their head coach the year after winning the national championship. Additionally, the Big Ten has added four teams from the Pac 12 conference, along with eliminating divisions within the conference. Another major difference is the fact that the College Football Playoff is expanding from 4 teams to 12 teams in 2024.

Given all of the factors mentioned above, it seems like a pretty tall order for Michigan to win the National Championship again in 2024. But then again, plenty of folks spent the majority of the 2023 season betting against the Wolverines week in and week out, and we all saw how that turned out.

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