College Football: Realistic nightmare scenarios for top Big Ten teams

Chris Breiler | Aug 20, 2024

Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive lineman Drake Nugent (60) prepares to snap the ball during the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

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We are less than two weeks from the start of the 2024 season for the top teams in the Big Ten conference, and it's clear that the expectations are high. In fact, the Big Ten features four teams ranked within the AP preseason Top 25 poll - Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan. Although all four teams are expected to be squarely in the championship hunt, it's also a very realistic possibility that all four could find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to the conference championship and the newly expanded College Football Playoff.

Here's a look at the realistic nightmare scenarios for the top teams in the Big Ten conference.

No. 2 Ohio State: 9-3

Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day leads his team in warm-ups prior to the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Losses: at Oregon, at Penn State, Michigan

Ohio State enters the 2024 season as one of the early favorites to win the national championship. After another disappointing season in 2023, Ryan Day went into the transfer portal and added key pieces at quarterback, running back, and in the secondary. Day also landed the No. 1 overall player in the 2024 class with WR Jeremiah Smith, a guy who's expected to be a major contributor as a true freshman. There's no doubt that the expectations are high for the Buckeyes in 2024, but there's also a realistic scenario that leads to three regular seasons losses for Ohio State. Not only would those three losses prevent the Buckeyes from playing for a Big Ten championship, it would also keep Ohio State out of the College Football Playoff.

No. 3 Oregon: 9-3

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, center, waits to take the field with his team for their game against Oregon State at Autzen Stadium Friday, Nov. 24, 2023. / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Losses: Ohio State, at Michigan, at Oregon State/at Wisconsin/Washington

Many analysts believe that Oregon is poised to run the table and capture the Big Ten championship in its first year with the conference, which would be an incredible - and historic - accomplishment. But doing so won't be easy, particularly with matchups against Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule. Add in a road contest against Wisconsin and the regular season finale against Washington, and it wouldn't be all that surprising to see Oregon bottom out at three regular season losses. As mentioned above with Ohio State, three regular season losses would keep the Ducks out of the conference championship and the CFP.

No. 8 Penn State: 7-5

Apr 13, 2024; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin walks on the field during a warmup practice prior to the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports / Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Losses: at West Virginia, at USC, at Wisconsin, Ohio State, Washington

Penn State is one of those teams that always seems to come up short when it matters most. Although the Nittany Lions avoid playing Michigan and Oregon, they'll need to deal with a brutal four-game stretch that includes contests at USC, at Wisconsin, Ohio State and Washington. It seems unlikely that Penn State would drop all four, particularly with two of those games occurring in Happy Valley, but it's definitely a realistic possibility.

No. 9 Michigan: 7-5

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Losses: Texas, USC, at Washington, Oregon, at Ohio State

The reigning national champions are largely being overlooked in 2024, as the Wolverines are replacing a ton of talent and breaking in a new head coach. Although the cupboard in Ann Arbor is far from bare, Michigan's brutal schedule could certainly lead to a painful season. In many ways, the Week 2 matchup against Texas in Ann Arbor could serve as a fork in the road for how Michigan's season will play out. A win sets the tone for what could be another run at the championship, a loss could signal the beginning of a very long season.

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