College Football: Realistic nightmare scenarios for top Big Ten teams
![Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive lineman Drake Nugent (60) prepares to snap the ball during the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24. Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive lineman Drake Nugent (60) prepares to snap the ball during the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24.](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_3000,h_1687,x_0,y_0/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/wolverine_digest/01j5rdn2p88rfzt2p598.jpg)
We are less than two weeks from the start of the 2024 season for the top teams in the Big Ten conference, and it's clear that the expectations are high. In fact, the Big Ten features four teams ranked within the AP preseason Top 25 poll - Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan. Although all four teams are expected to be squarely in the championship hunt, it's also a very realistic possibility that all four could find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to the conference championship and the newly expanded College Football Playoff.
Here's a look at the realistic nightmare scenarios for the top teams in the Big Ten conference.
No. 2 Ohio State: 9-3
Losses: at Oregon, at Penn State, Michigan
Ohio State enters the 2024 season as one of the early favorites to win the national championship. After another disappointing season in 2023, Ryan Day went into the transfer portal and added key pieces at quarterback, running back, and in the secondary. Day also landed the No. 1 overall player in the 2024 class with WR Jeremiah Smith, a guy who's expected to be a major contributor as a true freshman. There's no doubt that the expectations are high for the Buckeyes in 2024, but there's also a realistic scenario that leads to three regular seasons losses for Ohio State. Not only would those three losses prevent the Buckeyes from playing for a Big Ten championship, it would also keep Ohio State out of the College Football Playoff.
No. 3 Oregon: 9-3
Losses: Ohio State, at Michigan, at Oregon State/at Wisconsin/Washington
Many analysts believe that Oregon is poised to run the table and capture the Big Ten championship in its first year with the conference, which would be an incredible - and historic - accomplishment. But doing so won't be easy, particularly with matchups against Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule. Add in a road contest against Wisconsin and the regular season finale against Washington, and it wouldn't be all that surprising to see Oregon bottom out at three regular season losses. As mentioned above with Ohio State, three regular season losses would keep the Ducks out of the conference championship and the CFP.
No. 8 Penn State: 7-5
Losses: at West Virginia, at USC, at Wisconsin, Ohio State, Washington
Penn State is one of those teams that always seems to come up short when it matters most. Although the Nittany Lions avoid playing Michigan and Oregon, they'll need to deal with a brutal four-game stretch that includes contests at USC, at Wisconsin, Ohio State and Washington. It seems unlikely that Penn State would drop all four, particularly with two of those games occurring in Happy Valley, but it's definitely a realistic possibility.
No. 9 Michigan: 7-5
Losses: Texas, USC, at Washington, Oregon, at Ohio State
The reigning national champions are largely being overlooked in 2024, as the Wolverines are replacing a ton of talent and breaking in a new head coach. Although the cupboard in Ann Arbor is far from bare, Michigan's brutal schedule could certainly lead to a painful season. In many ways, the Week 2 matchup against Texas in Ann Arbor could serve as a fork in the road for how Michigan's season will play out. A win sets the tone for what could be another run at the championship, a loss could signal the beginning of a very long season.
- Enjoy more Michigan Wolverines coverage on Michigan Wolverines On SI -
More Michigan News:
Ranking each Michigan football game in 2024 by difficulty
Michigan Football: 3 Wolverines named 'guaranteed' first round NFL Draft picks