Michigan football: Chances of winning the remainder of the games in 2024

Trent Knoop | Oct 1, 2024

Sep 28, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore on the sideline in the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The No. 10 Michigan Wolverines are out to a 4-1 start with their lone loss coming to Texas in the second game of the season. Even though Michigan has won four games, none of them have looked pretty. The Wolverines are still trying to work on their 130th-ranked passing attack and while the Michigan defense keeps improving -- there are late-game lapses that need worked on. But at the end of the day, Michigan keeps adding to its win column which is ultimately the only thing that matters.

Michigan will continue to lean on Kalel Mullings and the run game. Mullings, who has taken over as the lead back, has run for 100-plus yards in three straight football games. This past game, in a win against Minnesota, the Wolverines were slightly more creative by using Donovan Edwards in different ways. Offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell used Edwards in the slot and out wide a couple of times before motioning him beside Alex Orji. Using Edwards, Mullings, and Orji at the same time could create new looks for the Michigan offense.

But while Michigan does continue to work on the kinks, ESPN has updated its FPI rankings and we are going to look at the analytics. The Football Power Index has Michigan ranked as the 26th-best team in the country. The Wolverines' win-loss projection is sitting at 7.4-4.6 on the year. Michigan has a 1.4% chance to win the Big Ten and a 9.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff.

Updated game-by-game projections

Oct. 5 at Washington (33rd): 42.3% chance of a win
Oct. 19 at Illinois (43rd): 56.6% chance of a win
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (65th): 76.6% chance of a win
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (9th): 35.7% chance of a win
Nov. 9 at Indiana (16th): 32.3% chance of a win
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (86th): 87.6% chance of a win
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (3rd): 9.2% chance of a win

Based on Michigan's chances of winning the remainder of its games, the Wolverines would end the season at 7-5. The Wolverines are currently favored to beat Illinois, Michigan State, and Northwestern while being underdogs in the rest of the games. For the Wolverines' sake, it's a good thing the games aren't played on paper.

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