Analyst on Michigan: 'This is a team that could realistically lose five games'

Trent Knoop | Sep 12, 2024

Michigan quarterback Davis Warren (16) looks to makes a pass against Texas linebacker Barryn Sorrell (88) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, September 7, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan football, and its fanbase, are in very unfamiliar territory. You have to go back to the 2020 COVID-19 season to experience heartbreak and uncertainty surrounding the Wolverines' program. While that's only four seasons ago, it feels like an eternity with what Michigan has accomplished in the past three seasons. Three-straight Big Ten Championships, three victories over rival Ohio State, three Playoff births, and the Wolverines capped it off with a national championship.

But in 2024, the Wolverines beat a good Fresno State team while looking rather lackluster. Then in Week 2, last weekend, Michigan was throttled in the Big House by a very good Texas football team. The Wolverines struggled to get off the field. Texas converted a majority of its third downs and exploited the Michigan defense. Offensively, the Wolverines couldn't move the ball until it was too late in the fourth quarter. The Wolverines' offensive line continued to struggle and two turnovers from the Michigan offense gave the maize and blue next to no chance.

So what are the expectations for Michigan moving forward? The fanbase wants nothing less than a Playoff birth. Once the CFP moved to 12 teams, it made it easier for a team like Michigan to get into the Playoff. But don't forget about the Wolverines' daunting schedule. Michigan still has to face USC, Oregon, and Ohio State. While games against Washington, Michigan State, and Illinois don't appear to be gimmies anymore.

ESPN analyst Heather Dinich, who attended the Michigan and Texas game last weekend, believes the Wolverines might be a 7-5 team this year from what she's seen.

This is a team that could realistically lose five games -- Texas, USC, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State. According to ESPN Stats & Information, a four-loss team has never been ranked in the committee's top 12. Michigan got beat soundly up front, couldn't get enough stops on third downs -- or convert on third downs (3-of-12) -- and lost the turnover (3-0) battle. Coach Sherrone Moore said many of those issues -- particularly the turnovers -- are correctable, but how much better can Michigan be on the offensive and defensive lines? Michigan is No. 103 in the country in offensive efficiency.
- Heather Dinich - ESPN

While plenty of people are blaming Davis Warren for the early struggles, it's not all on the quarterback. Fans are used to seeing J.J. McCarthy the past two seasons and have been spoiled with some elite play. It is Michigan, the Wolverines are supposed to have elite quarterback play year in and out. But that's not the case in 2024. Michigan has a game manager at quarterback, which wouldn't be an issue if the Wolverines' defense, offensive line, and run game were all good.

But the offensive line has been the biggest area of concern if you take a 1,000-foot view. They are struggling to open holes and are really having issues in pass protection. When Warren has been under duress/pressured, it's 83.3% of the time due to the offensive line. To get specific, the RG (Gio El-Hadi) has allowed pressure 16.7% of the time, and the RT (Evan Link) has allowed pressure 66.7% of the time -- not good.

Michigan's troubles go beyond the quarterback position, although the resistance to adding a portal QB doesn't look good, either. Big Ten coaches who watched the Texas game saw a Michigan team feeling the effects of losing 13 players to the NFL draft and simply lacking the depth it enjoyed the past three seasons. "The amount of talent they lost, this is more like the teams they had where they won six or seven games," a Big Ten coordinator said. "A whole new squad, new defensive coordinator, whole new offense."
- Adam Rittenberg - ESPN

You can put Warren, Jack Tuttle, Alex Orji, or true freshman Jadyn Davis under center, but it's not certain any of those options will fix the Michigan offense as of now. Michigan has had elite offensive line play for the past three seasons and right now, it's a far cry from then. The Wolverines have this Week, against Arkansas State, to get their trench play figured out before taking on a much improved USC defense in two weeks.

- Enjoy more Michigan Wolverines coverage on Michigan Wolverines On SI -