ESPN ranks Top 12 College Football Playoff contenders

Chris Breiler | Aug 2, 2024

Michigan defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) celebrates a sack on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) in the second quarter during the College Football Playoff national championship game against Washington at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Monday, January 8, 2024. / Melanie Maxwell / USA TODAY NETWORK

We are less than a month away from the start of the 2024 college football season, and there's plenty of intrigue heading into the new year. Conference realignment, the elimination of divisions, and an expanded 12-team playoff are just some of the factors that should make this one of the most memorable seasons in college football history.

Although the usual suspects like Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama are all once again heavy favorites to play for the biggest prize in all of college football, the expanded playoff field means that the pathway toward claiming a national championship will be more difficult than ever in 2024. On Thursday, ESPN released the top 12 teams with the best chance to make the playoff according to the the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index). There certainly aren't many surprises on the list, but having these 12 teams in the playoff would definitely make for a postseason full of incredible matchups.

1. Georgia: 79.1%

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart talks with Georgia quarterback Carson Beck (15) during a football game between Tennessee and Georgia at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. / Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

2. Oregon: 76%

Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning against the Liberty Flames during the 2024 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

3. Texas: 67.8%

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian leads his team onto the field ahead of the game against Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Sep. 9, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

4. Ohio State: 67.2%

Dec 29, 2023; Arlington, TX, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Lincoln Kienholz (12) talks to Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day in the third quarter against Missouri Tigers during the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Robertson-USA TODAY Sports / Kyle Robertso-USA TODAY Sports

5. Penn State: 59.1%

Apr 13, 2024; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin walks on the field during a warmup practice prior to the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports / Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

6. Notre Dame: 59.1%

Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman speaks to Kahanu Kia (43) and Devan Houstan (98) Saturday, April 20, 2024, at the annual Notre Dame Blue-Gold spring football game at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend. / MANDATORY CREDIT GREG SWIERCZ / USA TODAY NETWORK

7. Alabama: 57.2%

The Crimson Tide football team continued practice Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024, as they prepare for the season opener and the first game under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer watches his defensive backs run through drills. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK

8. Missouri: 37.3%

Dec 29, 2023; Arlington, TX, USA; Missouri Tigers head coach Eliah Drinkwitz congratulates running back Cody Schrader (7) after the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

9. Tennessee: 36.9%

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel during Tennessee's Orange & White spring football game at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, April 13, 2024. / Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

10. Oklahoma: 36.6%

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables gathers his team after a University of Oklahoma (OU) Sooners spring football game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, April 20, 2024. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

11. Florida State: 35.9%

Nov 18, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Brock Glenn (11) and head coach Mike Norvell talk after a play during the fourth quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports / Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

12. Michigan: 28.5%

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately, the new playoff format consists of the five highest ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest ranked teams - meaning we'd never see all 12 teams above in the same playoff. But for arguments sake, let's just say that the top 12 teams according to the ESPN FPI actually ended up making the playoff in the order that they're ranked above. Here's what the matchups would look like under the new format:

First Round: December 20-21

• No. 12 Michigan at No. 5 Penn State
• No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Missouri
• No. 11 Florida State at No. 6 Notre Dame
• No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Alabama

Quarterfinals: December 31/January 1

• Michigan/Penn State vs. No. 4 Ohio State
• Tennessee/Missouri vs. No. 1 Georgia
• Florida State/Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Texas
• Oklahoma/Alabama vs. No. 2 Oregon

Yeah, you can sign me up for all of that.

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