Game Predictions: No. 12 Michigan vs. Minnesota

Game previews, bold predictions and final score predictions for Michigan football's Week 5 matchup with Minnesota!

Matt Lounsberry | Sep 27, 2024

Michigan and Minnesota renew one of the oldest rivalries in college football in the "Battle for the Little Brown Jug" / Matthew Lounsberry — Michigan Wolverines On SI

Fresh off a 27-24 upset win over USC, No. 12 Michigan seeks its third consecutive victory this weekend when it hosts Minnesota at the Big House on Saturday (Noon ET / FOX). The Wolverines (3-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten) are a 10-point favorite over the Golden Gophers (2-2, 0-1).

One of the oldest and most played rivalry games in all of college football, the Wolverines and the Golden Gophers meet for the 106th time, the last 98 of which have been played for "the Little Brown Jug". Michigan has dominated the series with a 77-25-3 all-time record against Minnesota, including four wins in a row for the Wolverines. The Golden Gophers' last win in this series came in 2014, a 30-14 decision in Ann Arbor.

Minnesota enters this game off a 31-14 loss to Iowa last weekend. The Golden Gophers also fell to the only other "Power 4" opponent it has faced this season, a 19-17 defeat at the hands of North Carolina in their season-opener. The Gophers' two victories have come against Rhode Island (48-0) and Nevada (27-0). It's been a tough start offensively for head coach P.J. Fleck's team, which ranks 104th in total offense (335 ypg) and T-95th in yards per play (5.51).

Michigan's offense hasn't fared much better, as the Wolverines rank 109th in total offense (327 ypg) and 94th in yards per play (5.53). It won't be easy for the U-M's offense to right the ship against teh Gophers. Minnesota boasts the No. 8-ranked defense in yards allowed per game (223.2), ranks 13th in the country in yards per play allowed (3.99) and No. 2 in pass yards allowed per game. However, Michigan's offensive strength lines up with the weaker aspect of Minnesota's defense. The Wolverines are averaging 204.8 rushing yards per game (31st) and 5.57 yards per carry (T-33rd), while the Gophers rank 56th in average rush yards allowed (123.8) and 62nd in yards per carry allowed (3.81).

Below, Michigan Wolverines On SI editor Chris Breiler, senior writer Trent Knoop and contributing writer Matt Lounsberry share their thoughts on the game with Two Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.

Michigan defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) celebrates a tackle against USC during the first half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chris’ Two Bold Predictions

1. Michigan will throw for less than 100 yards again

I'm not sure that this would qualify as a "bold" prediction given what we saw last weekend, but I don't believe Michigan will pass for more than 100 yards on Saturday. The biggest deciding factor here is the health of tight end Colston Loveland and whether or not he'll be available on Saturday, but it's clear that the Wolverines will run the ball until someone proves they can stop them. Additionally, the Michigan offense ranks dead last in the Big Ten in passing offense, while the Golden Gophers currently feature the No. 2 pass defense nationally (allowing just 99.5 YPG).

2. The Michigan defense finishes with 4 sacks again

Although it wasn't a perfect performance, the Michigan defense showed flashes of dominance against USC last Saturday. As a result of Michigan's relentless attack, Trojan QB Miller Moss spent much of the afternoon on his back. The Wolverines finished the afternoon with 4.0 sacks, 7.0 QB hits, 27 QB pressures, and a pass-rush grade of 91.2. In order for Michigan to continue to be successful moving forward, the Wolverines will need that type of effort from the defense each Saturday in conference play.

Trent’s Two Bold Predictions

1. Alex Orji throws for 150 yards

What a bold prediction! But let's be honest, that's where we're at right now. Michigan has thrown for over 150 one time this season and that's because the Wolverines got behind Texas early and had to throw the football. Alex Orji is coming off a 32-yard performance against USC and that has to improve. Like literally, it has to get better than 32 yards. 150 yards isn't very many in today's college football and Sherrone Moore said he would like to see a more balanced offense, so I can see Orji throwing it a few more times on Saturday.

2. Kalel Mullings goes for 125-plus on the ground

Mullings has gone for 150-plus in back-to-back games and he's shown enough to prove he is the lead back at this point. Michigan, while I think will throw it a few more times, wants to run the football and assert its dominance in the trenches. There is no reason to go away from Mullings on Saturday -- especially against a team that allowed Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to run for 200 yards and three scores last weekend. I look for Mullings to break a few long runs and have another great day.

Matt’s Two Bold Predictions

1. Michigan exceeds 275 rushing yards for 3rd straight game

The Wolverines ran for 301 against Arkansas State and 290 against USC, and there's no doubt they'll lean heavily on the run game again this weekend. In their loss to Iowa, despite the Hawkeyes limitations at quarterback, Minnesota allowed 272 rushing yards. That bodes well for Michigan tailback Kalel Mullings, who's been outstanding so far this season. It's going to be another ground-and-pound afternoon for the Wolverines.

2. Donovan Edwards scores two touchdowns

Although Mullings has earned the right to be Michigan's lead back, I'm sensing a big game ahead for Donovan Edwards. I was tempted to predict Edwards to lead the Wolverines in rushing this week, but I do believe Mullings is going to get more carries overall and it's hard to pick against him after the way he's played this season. However, I think Edwards can find success in relief of Mullings, and maybe he gets loose a few times coming in with fresh legs.

Chris’ Preview, Score Prediction

The safest bet is that Michigan takes the winning formula it used against USC last weekend and applies it to Minnesota this weekend: Run the ball, run the ball, run the ball. The tandem of Mullings and Edwards will continue to be productive, and I'm just not sure that Minnesota is equipped to deal with it for a full four quarters. Add in a stingy defense that's great against the run and can make life very difficult for an opposing QB, and I think the Wolverines win comfortably here.

Score Prediction: Michigan 27, Minnesota 13

Trent’s Preview, Score Prediction

After picking USC to win last weekend, I'm back on board with the Wolverines. I don't think Minnesota is a bad team, but I don't think the Gophers should be a team that goes into the Big House and upsets the Wolverines. The Michigan run game and defense are both playing much better and look at what Iowa did against Minnesota last weekend. Hawkeye running back Kaleb Johnson ran for over 200 yards and three scores against the Gophers. Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards could be in store for big games. I don't think the Minnesota offense does anything exciting that should confuse Michigan on defense. The only big question entering this game is what does the Wolverines' passing game look like?

Score Prediction: Michigan 24, Minnesota 10

Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction

The over-under for this game is set at a lowly 35.5 total points, and I still think that's too high. This game will feature two of the worst offenses in college football, and both defenses will have the advantage. With that said, Michigan is the more talented and better team. The Wolverines have a blueprint to follow after Iowa ran for 272 rushing yards on the Gophers last week, and we'll see a similar game plan for U-M. With that said, I expect another quiet day from quarterback Alex Orji and the passing game. Field position and turnovers are a key component here.

Score Prediction: Michigan 20, Minnesota 10

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