Wolverine Digest

Game Predictions: Michigan vs. Michigan State

Game previews, bold predictions and final score predictions for the annual rivalry game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Michigan State Spartans!

Matt Lounsberry

The Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans meet again in The Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy
The Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans meet again in The Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy / Matt Lounsberry - Michigan Wolverines On SI
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On Saturday, two in-state rivals seemingly headed in opposite directions will meet on the gridiron with another year's worth of bragging rights on the line.

Michigan (4-3, 2-2 Big Ten) has suffered back-to-back losses for the first time since 2020, falling to Washington and Illinois in a pair of road games. Meanwhile, Michigan State (4-3, 2-2) which is coming off it's biggest win of the season last week against Iowa, ending a three-game losing streak of it's own.

However, whereas the Spartans entered this season expecting a rebuilding year under new head coach Jonathan Smith, the Wolverines expected to compete for championships again in the first season under head coach Sherrone Moore. Instead, Michigan has discovered it needs to do some serious rebuilding of its own.

While this has been a high-profile matchup several times over the past decade-plus, this year's meeting between Michigan and Michigan State is the first in the series in which neither team is ranked since 2008. It's also the first time both programs are led by new head coaches in the same year since 1995.

The 117th meeting all-time between the Wolverines and the Spartans, this is the 72nd time the two programs will play for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. Michigan holds a 73-38-5 record all-time against Michigan State, and leads the trophy series, 40-29-2. The Wolverines are a five-point favorite heading into Saturday's game.

Below, Michigan Wolverines On SI editor Chris Breiler, senior writer Trent Knoop and contributing writer Matt Lounsberry share their thoughts on the game with Two Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.

Chris’ Two Bold Predictions

1. Michigan avoids turning the ball over

Turnovers have been a massive issue for the Michigan offense this season. In fact, the Wolverines have turned the ball over 15 times through the first seven weeks (9 interceptions, 6 fumbles). With the offense averaging over two turnovers per game, it's hard to imagine that they miraculously find a way solve it in Week 8 - particularly with the ongoing issues at quarterback. But if you're looking for a bold prediction, I'd say the Michigan offense avoiding any turnovers on Saturday would classify as bold. Very, very bold.

2. Michigan completes a 50+ yard touchdown pass

Again, very bold. We all know that Michigan has struggled in the passing game through seven weeks, failing to generate any explosive plays with the wide receivers. Although I do expect the Michigan offense to spend most of the evening hammering away with a steady dose of Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards on the ground, at some point this offense is going to connect on a deep shot. Saturday night in the Big House against rival Michigan State in a must-win game feels like a good time to make that happen.

Trent’s Two Bold Predictions

1. Kalel Mullings runs for 100 yards

It's time for Michigan to quit trying to prove it can pass the ball -- it can't. Lean back into your offensive identity and run the football with your best player. Kalel Mullings has been over 100 yards three times this season and ran for 87 last week against Illinois. If Michigan chooses to commit to the run, I think Mullings can get over 100 against Michigan State.

2. Aidan Chiles turns the ball over two times

The young sophomore has nine interceptions and four fumbles through seven games this season. He struggles when facing pressure and that's something Michigan can do. The Wolverines don't need to blitz in order to create pressure. Michigan still has one of the best front fours in all of college football. The Wolverines should use a spy and make Chiles beat them with his arm. Get some pressure and Chiles is likely to make a mistake -- or two.

Matt’s Two Bold Predictions

1. Michigan gets a defensive touchdown

The Wolverines have struggled to take care of the football all season, but so have the Spartans. Though he's played better as of late, MSU quarterback Aidan Chiles was prone to turnovers early in the season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him put the ball in harm's way at least once in this game. Defensive scores are pretty fluky and hard to predict, but I'll call for Michigan to come up with one on Saturday.

2. The Wolverines are penalized fewer times than the Spartans

I'm not sure how bold this prediction is, but Michigan has been penalized far more often this season than they were a year ago, so it will require more discipline on the Wolverines' part. It'll be interesting to see the temperature of Saturday's game from an emotional standpoint. This rivalry has been one of the nastier in college football in for a while now, but head coaches Sherrone Moore and Jonathan Smith each seem more reserved than their respective predecessors. We'll see if that translates onto the field between the two rivals.

Chris’ Preview, Score Prediction

As much as I would love to pick the Wolverines to win this one, I just can't do it. In fact, it's hard to imagine how Michigan can win any game remaining on the schedule with the type of offense we saw last weekend in Champaign. Between the play calling, the poor quarterback play, the turnovers, and the inconsistent play on the offensive line, I just don't have confidence that Michigan's offense is capable of doing enough to win a football game from here on out.

It's certainly possible that the Wolverines can make some improvements, but we're pretty late in the season to expect any adjustment that could drastically change what we've seen so far. The harsh reality is that this offense isn't very good, and there's no quick fix that will change that in 2024. If the same issues show up in Week 8 that we've seen through the first seven weeks, it's likely that the Paul Bunyan trophy will be on a bus headed back to East Lansing on Saturday night.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 24, Michigan 20

Trent’s Preview, Score Prediction

I truly don't know what's going to happen on Saturday. Michigan State has been better coached and has played better in recent weeks compared to the Wolverines. If the Spartans come into Ann Arbor and walk away with a win, I don't think anyone will be shocked. And while this might be me thinking too highly of the reigning national champions, I think a couple of things bode well for the maize and blue.

First off, MSU quarterback Aidan Chiles has been as turnover-prone as any of the Michigan quarterbacks. Chiles struggles under pressure and that's one thing the Wolverines' defense does a good job of, creating pressure on the opposition. The other factor, Michigan is at home. While the Wolverines might not be a great football team, Michigan does play better at home. If the Wolverines can stop turning the football over, I think they can get a third-straight win over the Spartans.

Score Prediction: Michigan 20, Michigan State 17

Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction

Full transparency — I'm shocked at the prediction I'm about to make. Before the season began, I didn't think there was any chance Michigan would lose this game this season. That's because I assumed the Wolverines would have a massive advantage at the line of scrimmage over the Spartans. That's still true on the defensive side, and Michigan's front seven should have a good day against MSU's offensive line. However, the Spartans' own defensive line is better than I anticipated they'd be in Year 1 under Smith, and the Wolverines' O-line has underperformed. Michigan State has the better quarterback, the better coaching staff and enters the game with momentum. I won't be shocked by any result we get in this game, but the smart money is on the Spartans based on what we've seen out of the Wolverines in recent weeks.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 24, Michigan 20

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