Is Michigan being overlooked by the analytics?

ESPN's analytic tool isn't giving Michigan much of a chance in 2024.

Michigan acting head coach Sherrone Moore watches a replay during the first half against Ohio State at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Football Power Index (FPI) from ESPN is a projective model for an in-depth view of college football, or NFL, teams. FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

ESPN released the preseason FPI rankings and one may ask, is Michigan being overlooked?

The top four teams aren't too shocking: Georgia, Oregon, Texas, and Ohio State -- in that order. But you have to go down some spots to find the defending national champions. Michigan is ranked No. 12 by the analytics.

Looking a little deeper, the FPI has the Wolverines' projected win total in 2024 being 8.3 wins. They have a 0.7% chance to win out, a 7.3% chance to win the Big Ten, a 28.5% chance to make the Playoff, a 4% chance to make the National Championship, and a 1.7% chance to win the whole thing. 

Let's compare Michigan with Ohio State.

Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive lineman Drake Nugent (60) prepares to snap the ball during the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA

The Buckeyes have a 7.5% chance to win out, a 25.7% chance to win the Big Ten, a 67.2% chance to make the Playoff, a 19% chance to make the National Championship, and a 10% chance to win it. 

It's quite true that Michigan lost a great deal of talent to the NFL this past April, but the three-time defending Big Ten Champions have been to the Playoff three years running and are coming off of an undefeated season. The Wolverines are arguably the first defending national champions that aren't getting much love heading into the next season. 

Obviously, the analytics don't mean anything and the only thing that matters is what Michigan does on the field when fall rolls around, but it's interesting to see what the deep dive says about college football when we're in the dog days of July.

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