'They have no margin for error': Joel Klatt explains why Michigan Football is ripe for an upset

The Wolverines are standing on thin ice with their offensive limitations...

Michigan football coach Sherrone Moore looks up at the scoreboard after his team got a fumble recovery during first-half action between Michigan and Minnesota at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Eric Seals / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Outside of a matchup against one of the best teams in the country in No. 2 Texas, Michigan football has found ways to win games on the back of an explosive run game and strong defense.

That's been enough to lead the Wolverines to a 4-1 record and 2-0 start in Big Ten Conference play, but Fox Sports' college football analyst Joel Klatt doesn't believe the way Michigan has won games this season is sustainable in the back-half of the year.

"Michigan is just like, every week I feel like there's more questions than answers," Klatt said on the latest episode The Joel Klatt Show. "It becomes painfully obvious to anybody that is a Michigan fan that if Michigan is outside of their perfect blueprint, they're at risk of being beat. Like, Michigan cannot overcome mistakes at all, so they have no margin for error."

In Michigan's 27 offensive drives since benching quarterback Davis Warren in favor of Alex Orji, the Wolverines have scored points on just nine possessions (seven touchdowns, two field goals), and each of the first five touchdown drives featured at least one explosive run. Ten of the drives with Orji at quarterback have ended in an three-and-out. On average, Michigan's non-scoring drives end after just 3.4 plays and 6.9 yards.

Sep 21, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji (10) passes in the first half against the USC Trojans at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

"They have yet to prove that with this style and a lack of passing game that they can drive the football down the field," Klatt said.

"I'm not going to penalize them because they create explosive runs plays...I am trying to say though, if somebody takes that away from them, how do they march the ball down the field? The answer is that they can't. If the explosions are not there, guess what they can't do? They can't create first downs. And when they can't create first downs, what do they do? They expose their defense to more snaps and...what also gets exposed [is] the lack of depth, as opposed to last year, on their defense."

In each of their past two games, against USC and Minnesota, the Wolverines' defense surrendered only three points in the first half, but gave up 21 points in both second halves. Klatt said this is a direct result of Michigan's inability to sustain drives without an explosive run play.

"All of a sudden, the defense gets tired, Minnesota starts using tempo and now they don't have an answer," Klatt said. "That's why they have no margin. If they don't create big runs, or create short fields, Michigan's going to get beat. This is a team with no margin for error, and when the defense got tired — both the last two weeks — against USC and Minnesota, they gave up three in the first half, 21 in the second. Why? Because the offense can't sustain drives. They can't sustain drives, because they cannot throw the football."

After Warren threw six interceptions in less than three games as Michigan's starting quarterback, Orji has done a better job taking care of the football. The redshirt sophomore is responsible for only one turnover in the past two games, but he's only thrown for a total of 118 passing yards. Without a downfield passing threat, the Wolverines have no chance of reaching their season goals, according to Klatt.

"Michigan is playing with very little margin right now, and because of that, in good conscience, they're not a threat in the Big Ten," he said. "Not to Ohio State, or really even Penn State, or an Oregon team that has shown a really high ceiling when they beat Oregon State. Like, that margin's going to have to change. They're going to have to prove that they can drive the football down the field, because driving the football down the field is their blueprint. They've got to remove those snaps from the defense."

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