'I think this is Michigan's spot': Top CFB analyst picks Wolverines to upset USC

The Wolverines are a home underdog for the second time in three weeks, but one college football analyst believes Michigan will find a way to upset USC at the Big House on Saturday...

Matt Lounsberry | Sep 18, 2024

Sep 7, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore cheers with the student section during warm ups at Michigan Stadium. / Junfu Han-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

In this story:

Michigan Wolverines

After three games that left much to be desired, No. 18 Michigan (2-1) finds itself in an early desperation spot as it welcomes No. 11 USC to the Big House this coming Saturday.

The Wolverines already have one defeat on their resume — a lopsided 31-12 loss at the hands of then-No. 3 Texas — and are in danger of falling to 2-2 as a current 5.5-point underdog to the Trojans this weekend. While the odds seemed stacked against Michigan, CBS Sports' college football analyst Josh Pate believes an upset is on hand in Ann Arbor.

"Is it really over? Because, if USC really goes in here and wins and covers here, that's kinds of your season for Michigan," Pate said. "They're still going to play all the games, but your preseason goals are probably out the window if you lose this game.

"A team like Michigan, with the pride of that program, does not get double-digit losses hung on them two times in September at home. At least historically, that is not the way it works. I respect 'wounded animal mode'. I respect what Lincoln Riley is doing as well. I think this is Michigan's spot. And I really don't want you to ask me how. I just think they're going to find the way to get it done."

Michigan Wolverines football Donovan Edwards

Michigan running back Donovan Edwards (7) runs for a first down against Texas during the first half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, September 7, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Pate cautioned against taking the first few weeks of a college season and drawing conclusions based on the way team's look in just a couple games. The Wolverines have struggled mightily on offense, and have been surprisingly susceptible defensively. USC, meanwhile, went from a team barely ranked in the Top 25 to knocking on the door of the Top 10 following wins over LSU (27-20) and Utah State (48-0).

"I think about the story and the lessons that college football teaches me every year around this time, around Week 3 and Week 4," Pate said. "I think Michigan is going to find a way to win this game outright. I know that doesn't compute right now. This is college football. This is the way it works."

USC hired defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn this past offseason to try and correct head coach Lincoln Riley's notoriously bad defense in Los Angeles. The move seems to have paid early dividends through two games, but Pate points to the small sample size as a reason to question whether USC truly has turned a corner on that side of the ball.

"I think USC is the story of college football so far this year. It's a great turnaround defensively already," Pate said. "Can it really be this good?"

Michigan seemed to get its run game figured out in last week's 28-18 win over Arkansas State, in which the Wolverines ran for 301 yards and averaged 6.8 yards per carry.

"USC's run defense — this is the test," Pate said. "Last year they were 119th — terrible. This year, they're 33rd so far. The LSU test in Week 1, I don't think, was as firm a test as this one will be. Michigan will run the ball...so this will be one of the best tests that that run defense will have all year."

Michigan Wolverines football Kalel Mullings

Sep 14, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Kalel Mullings (20) celebrates with offensive lineman Evan Link (71) after running for a touchdown against the Arkansas State Red Wolves in first half at Michigan Stadium. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Pate noted that USC and Texas share many of the same traits offensively. Both have offensive wizards as head coaches who call their own plays, Lincoln Riley and Steve Sarkisian. Both have excellent quarterbacks in Miller Moss and Quinn Ewers. Both have a deep, talented crop of wide receivers. What separates the two programs, is the Longhorns have much bigger and better personnel at the lines of scrimmage.

"USC is probably equipped to do some of the stuff Texas did," Pate said. "The difference is, Texas [was] the bigger, stronger, faster, more physical team. I'm not sure USC is bigger and more physical than Michigan. The score could look the same. I don't think they achieve it the same way Texas did. But, Michigan's physical edge, this is my biggest concern about USC, just may be more glaring.

"I think a lot of people's concerns have been put to rest after that LSU game, and I just watched South Carolina get after that LSU offensvie line. I just watched South Carolina run for 240-plus on that LSU defensive line. So, it was a great win for USC, [but] I am not banking that they are just established on both lines of scrimmage based on the LSU game. This will be the bankable game."

Michigan Wolverines football quarterback Alex Orji

Sep 14, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji (10) rushes second half against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Michigan Stadium. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

As for Michigan, Pate described head coach Sherrone Moore's decision to replace starting quarterback Davis Warren with Alex Orji as "desperate times call for desperate measures", but the podcast host believes Orji is better suited for the Wolverines' strengths offensively.

"Weirdly, I think it aligns Michigan's offense," Pate said. "It doesn't make them a prolific offense...In fact, their passing is going to become even worse than it has been, but it wasn't going to be good regardless. Alex Orji being inserted does one thing for them, and it aligns their offense. There is no more guessing what they are.

"He's really just a running back who can throw the ball a little bit, but that's what Michigan's offense is going to have to be. It's going to have to be a very complimentary approach. Special teams and defense are going to have to carry a disproportionate amount of the weight. There's no more trying to be anything more than that. So, it at least aligns their offense."

- Enjoy more Michigan Wolverines coverage on Michigan Wolverines On SI -