3 Things To Watch: Michigan In The Citrus Bowl
300 x 4: Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson is already enjoying one of the greatest runs in program history, becoming the first QB to wear the winged helmet to have three consecutive 300-yard passing games (384, 366 and 305 yards). His 10 touchdowns over a three-game span also tie a U-M record.
Can he keep it up, though, against an Alabama defense that ranks ninth nationally in allowing just 183.4 yards per contest, a passer rating of 111.02 that ranks seventh, and is one of just 10 defenses in college football that has more interceptions (15) than touchdown passes allowed (14)?
On the surface, a betting person would say no, but Patterson put up his big numbers against teams allowing 207.8 yards passing per game (Michigan State), 211.7 (Indiana) and 156.0 (Ohio State). In U-M's last three contests, Patterson exceeded those averages by total 479.5 yards, and if he continues to play in that groove, he will have a great shot to extend his program record to four contests of 300 yards or more passing.
The Crimson Tide are a formidable challenge and have not been abused by passing attacks often, allowing just three games of 200-yard plus through the air. However, that included 324 yards to South Carolina and 393 yards to LSU.
There is no proven recipe to beat Alabama - Auburn did it this season with just 173 yards passing and had 181 on the ground - but as Michigan's play in November demonstrated, this offense was at its best when it unleashed an aerial assault that utilized U-M's incredible talent at wide receiver and tight end. And the Wolverines will need their offense at its best because its defense has proven a sieve this season when it mattered most.
Defensive Rebound: While Michigan fans would love to see an encore performance from the offense, no one is eager to see a repeat effort from the defense after it yielded 56 points and 577 yards of offense to Ohio State.
For those keeping track, a defense that ranks seventh nationally in yards allowed per game gave up at 292.8 and a defense that is 16th in points allowed at 19.4 per contest, gave up 1,347 yards in three losses and 119 points in those defeats.
Michigan rebounded in its next contests after losses to Wisconsin and Penn State, holding its follow-up opponents to 332 total yards and 14 points, but one of those teams was Rutgers (the other was Notre Dame).
The success against the Irish is a promising, but ND is not Alabama. The Crimson Tide rank sixth nationally in total offense (the Irish are 45th) and second in scoring (ND is 13th). Even in its losses this season to LSU and Auburn, Bama accumulated big totals: 541 yards and 41 points in the loss to LSU and 515 yards and 45 points in its defeat to rival Auburn.
In other words, don't expect U-M's defense to lock down the Tide and hold Alabama to fewer than 350 yards and 28 points. But as I've written a few times this week, shut-down defenses are in the past. Today's college football world demands high-powered offenses and complementary defensive units that can force a few turnovers and get off the field in the red zone surrendering three instead of seven points here and there.
Don't expect a lot, just expect a little, but that little is critical: in its three losses this season, Michigan forced only a single turnover (and only on special teams) while its opponents scored touchdowns on 11 of 13 red-zone possessions. That's not going to win football games in 2020 (or frankly, ever).
Tomorrow, success will be measured only if Michigan wins, whether that's 38-35 or 45-42 it doesn't matter, but the defense has to play some sort of role. Against Ohio State, U-M allowed scores on 8 of 12 Buckeye offensive possessions, never got the ball back for its offense and never forced a field-goal try.
That put the Wolverines' offense in a position where it had to play perfect football to beat OSU, and perfect football doesn't exist.
Back For More: Over the last few weeks, juniors DE Kwity Paye and TE Nick Eubanks announced they will return for their senior seasons while it is believed classmates WR Nico Collins, CB Ambry Thomas and OC Cesar Ruiz are also expected to return. Junior wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones is reportedly 50-50.
Whether it's a preview of what's to come in 2020 or a final sendoff before declaring for the NFL Draft, what will these six Wolverines showcase in tomorrow's Citrus Bowl?
All of them are key contributors facing the second-best defense Michigan has played this year (though Wisconsin is higher in the national rankings, the Badgers don't boast the athletes that the Crimson Tide do), and all of them must play at an elite level their athleticism allows to match an Alabama team that features the nation's most talented roster (per 247Sports.com).
One could see how the six could make a major impact - Collins and Peoples-Jones accounting for 4-5 20-yard plays and at least a pair of touchdowns; Eubanks making a few critical third-down catches and sneaking out for a TD in the red zone; Paye getting to Bama QB Mac Jones for a sack to end a drive; Thomas adding to his team-leading three interceptions; and Ruiz helping to establish a Michigan ground game that can counter Alabama's potential rushing attack.
With a new decade upon us, the Maize and Blue are hoping to kick off an era in which they win the big games (U-M went 2-16 against Top 10 teams from 2010-19) with its best players dominating the headlines postgame. If we go to bed tomorrow night and these six, along with Patterson, have distinguished themselves, chances are the Wolverines begin 2020 far better than the way they ended 2019.
